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Official r/NFL Week 14 Power Rankings
Welcome to the week 14 Official NFL Power Rankings! With circus catches and beatdowns alongside great games, there was plenty to discuss even before a MNF Scorigami that might already be airing on ESPN classic.
32/32 Reporting | # | | Team | Δ | Record | Comment |
| 1. | | Chiefs | -- | 12-1 | The Dolphins gave the Chiefs all they could handle in the first quarter of Sunday's game, but the Chiefs once again proved that when they are focused, they are the most dangerous team in the NFL. Travis Kelce, the NFL's leading receiver currently, had another monster game showing why he's a future hall of famer. However, after having five 10+ point wins in the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs last five wins have all been won by one score. Will this trend ultimately matter come playoff time? It's hard to argue with results, as the Chiefs 12-1 record is the best record through 13 games in franchise history. The ultimate barometer for the Chiefs is this week as they travel to play the Saints, hopefully with Drew Brees. Many questions will be answered in this clash of two top five teams. |
| 2. | | Packers | +2 | 10-3 | There always seems to be one Lions-Packer game a year that ends up being some kind of adventure. Rodgers and Adams were as good as ever but the Lions kept on lingering throughout the game. Mason "Silver Fox" Crosby nailed an insurance 58 yard field goal with 3:30 to play and made a touchdown-saving tackle on the immediate kickoff. Aside from Crosby, the special teams really leave a lot to be desired, especially after the hands team almost allowed a onside kick recovery (c'mon y'all I don't need Bostic flashbacks). Packers officially won the division game and are now the projected 1 seed, which is pretty neat ngl. Onto a Saturday game I guess? |
| 3. | | Bills | +2 | 10-3 | For a team that was searching desperately in 2019 for a signature win, the 2020 Bills have found them everywhere they turn. This team has had one of the toughest schedules in the league, but except for a couple games they've shown up every time they've had to. This is the second-best team in the conference. The Bills bandwagons are circling now. Josh Allen's extending his baseball glove-sized hand. He says "get in nerds, we're goin' to the Super Bowl." |
| 4. | | Saints | -1 | 10-3 | This loss = Hurts. Dennis Allen seemingly had no answers for the rookie QB and then Miles Sanders piled on as well. "All the things we didn't want to allow happen, happened in that game." This was Sean Payton's post-game assessment and it's fair. Taysom Hill had an acceptable statline but it hides how sloppy he looked on the field. The defense struggled with its assignment to contain Hurts and keep him from getting outside the pocket - a worrying sign considering the next QB on the schedule. |
| 5. | | Steelers | -3 | 11-2 | The Steelers schedule has been insane. 6 days between NYG and DEN. 14 days between HOU and PHI. 10 days between JAX and BAL. But with that BAL game, the Steelers played them, WFT and BUF in 12 days. 3 games in 12 days. The team is out of LBs and OL. This has been a challenging season for everyone, but this is unprecedented. The Steelers have 8 days until CIN, then 6 days until IND. 10 out of 16 games played with an irregular schedule? You can argue the drops are kicking their ass, but this schedule has been brutal. No wonder they've lost 2 straight. |
| 6. | | Rams | -- | 9-4 | Imagine only scoring 3 points in a game. |
| 7. | | Colts | +1 | 9-4 | Kenny Moore is a player underrated by national media but massively valuable to the Colts. GM Chris Ballard made re-signing him a priority after his breakout 2018 season. Moore has been a reliable performer throughout his tenure as a Colt and added an exclamation point with his insane one-handed interception on Sunday. |
| 8. | | Titans | +1 | 9-4 | Derrick Henry had his second 200+ yard 2 TD game against the Jaguars on Sunday. The performance made Henry the 7th player to rush for 1,500+ yards and 14+ TDs through 13 games. |
| 9. | | Seahawks | +1 | 9-4 | Nothing cures suicidal thoughts losing like playing the Jets, baby. Sunday was never much of a game, as it was all Seahawks all day. Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, Jamal Adams broke the single season sack record for defensive backs, and Geno Smith got to play a full quarter against the team that drafted him. What a way to get over a bad loss to the Giants. Up next the Seahawks will take on their final NFC East opponent of the season; Football Team. |
| 10. | | Ravens | +2 | 8-5 | This ranker is a brown man, writing about how Lamar Jackson lost 20 pounds dropping some brown, dropping a TD to Brown, to go ahead against the Browns. They go for two. So in response, K-hunt ties the game, 42-42. In response, the Llama sets up the GOAT to nail a 54-yarder, 16th game winner of his career! To say nothing else of the game -- 9 total fucking rushing touchdowns, tying a record held since two defunct teams played each other before anyone on reddit was born... and Jackson runs for a MNF QB record 124 yards -- but still gets all the clutch plays done with his arm, with this middling group of receivers. The even greater news amidst all this is that the schedule doesn't look so bad in the closing stretch, and inspired play like this past Monday from the offense will ease the burden of the Ravens' gradually depleting secondary. Best wishes to Trace McSorely who made an extremely commendable effort to set them up for Lamar's return. |
| 11. | | Browns | -4 | 9-4 | Did you bet the over? The Browns and Ravens combined for 89 points in an absolute rollercoaster of a game. While they did not win, the Browns have shown they are contenders. With two games to go a real shot at the playoffs is on the table. The Browns will face the Giants in another prime time game. |
| 12. | | Buccaneers | -1 | 8-5 | The Buccaneers pulled off a 26-14 win over the Vikings, bringing their playoff chances to 94%. Vikes kicker Dan Bailey channeled his inner Gary Anderson to win the Bucs' game ball on an 0/3 kicking performance with an additional missed XP. Rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. played a disruptive game against his dad's former team and is looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's next great safeties. With only interim coaches to close out the remaining three games of the season, the Bucs should have smooth sailing into the Wild Card round. |
| 13. | | Dolphins | -- | 8-5 | There are no consolation prizes in the NFL, but a single score loss to the best team in the league while the backup waterboy is lining up in the slot is about as close to a one as you'll ever get. While he was able to pull off the win, even Patrick Mahomes couldn't keep this ball-hawking defense from getting a hold of the ball, often. And at some point, if people don't start talking about Xavien Howard in the DPOY conversation, he's just going to go intercept the damned award himself. Hopefully, the long, long list of injured Dolphins get well soon. |
| 14. | | Cardinals | +1 | 7-6 | A monster day from Haason Reddick and the defense finally put the Cardinals back on the winning track. Breaking a franchise record with 5 sacks was one thing, but getting all the turnovers was huge. Hopefully the offense feeds off of it and has a good week in preparing for a big game with Philly that has huge playoff implications. It will take a complete team effort to beat Philly with Jalen Hurts starting fresh of a win against the Saints. |
| 15. | | Raiders | -1 | 7-6 | The Raiders looked really bad against the Colts, just like they have for the better part of the last 6 weeks. Luckily Gruden finally made the call to fire Pauly G, something fans have been calling for for the past 2 seasons. Only time will tell if it's too little, too late. Every game from here on out is a must win if the Raiders want to make the playoffs. |
| 16. | | Washington FT | +3 | 6-7 | Washington is finding ways to win instead of finding ways to lose. The offense was not able to score a TD so the defense went ahead and spotted them 14 points. Chase Young notches his first TD and continues to prove his worth as the 2nd overall pick as a game wrecker. |
| 17. | | Vikings | -- | 6-7 | Dalvin Cook became the first back to rush for over 100 yards against the Bucs in over 20 games, but the Vikings were unable to convert long drives into points as Dan Bailey went 0/4 on field goals and extra points. Couple that with some questionable officiating, the Vikings' banged up front seven generating zero pressure on Tom Brady and plenty of self-inflicted wounds and it all adds up to a real tough loss that knocks the Vikings down from wild card favorites to playoff long shots. |
| 18. | | Bears | +5 | 6-7 | The Bears finally snapped their six-game losing streak by rolling over the Texans without much difficulty. Trubisky attempted one throw longer than 20 yards. |
| 19. | | Patriots | -3 | 6-7 | Los Angeles, is a land of contrasts - In a span of four days the Patriots' hopes for a postseason were revived and then unceremoniously squashed. Run Defense, Offensive Line, Cam and the Receivers, There just are too many holes to cover up with week to week coaching, this team needs some reworking over the offseason. The Pats end the season with the division as always, lets hope to fuck someone’s season or seeding up. And also the Jets. |
| 20. | | 49ers | -2 | 5-8 | The 49ers defense did their job, holding the Washington offense to a total of 9 points, but the offense had two takeaways brought back for touchdowns and could not recover. The team looks to right the ship this week against the Cowboys. |
| 21. | | Broncos | +5 | 5-8 | Drew Lock put up the third-highest passer rating in team history — behind a couple guys you may know. In the battle of 4-8's, the Broncos somehow managed to not blow a sizeable fourth-quarter lead and emerge victorious. Winning the game but losing The Hunt for a Better Draft Pick. Will the team remain in purgatory? Stay tuned. |
| 22. | | Giants | -2 | 5-8 | It’s a real joy to watch the rest of the teams in the up-for-grabs NFC East secure wins, with one being against a top-5 team, all while watching your team play so poorly they start setting franchise records. At least we can say the hype was fun while it lasted, right? |
| 23. | | Falcons | -1 | 4-9 | Outplayed by a team whose most impressive win is a tossup between the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets? Check. Outcoached by special teams ace Anthony Lynn? Check. Ten point lead blown, two interceptions with under five minutes left, double check. Good thing age is just a number for the 32nd youngest team in the league. |
| 24. | | Panthers | -3 | 4-9 | I'm not sure where the Panthers go from here. Coach Rhule has said that he isn't going to do the team and fans a disservice by beginning to evaluate players, which means that we're going to see more of Teddy Bridgewater (who is 0-7 in one score games this season) crumble at the end of the game. Playing at Lambeau in primetime in December is one of the hardest things a team can do, and it's not going to be an easy test for the Panthers, who so far have shown that they can't win close games, nor can they defend the pass (23rd in passing defense). It's going to be tough sledding, but hopefully Jeremy Chinn can continue his torrid pace and run his way into DROY. |
| 25. | | Eagles | +3 | 4-8-1 | Jalen Hurts delivered the spark the Eagles needed to upset the Saints and spread 'quarterback controversy' all over the city of brotherly love. While the season remains a disappointment, the dual running threat of Hurts and Sanders could be interesting to watch going forward, and the NFC Least remains wide-open with 2 divisional games left on the 2020 menu. |
| 26. | | Lions | -1 | 5-8 | Even with a loss, Interim HC Darrell Bevell showed that his Lions are here to compete. This game was never out of hands, and the Lions kept it close the entire time. There are still plenty of woes on Defense, but the Offense continued to ball out as expected. With two TD's coming from the run game (Swift and Kerryon), there is already something to look forward to next year. Lately the team has been able to trust the run on short yardage and redzone carries and it has helped the team with consistency in the red zone. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is a QB that can carve up a weak secondary... so that didn't go great. There's around a 1% chance of the Lions getting a playoff spot, not unheard of, but it'll be tough if Stafford's injury progresses and we lose him for the season. #DefendTheDen |
| 27. | | Chargers | -- | 4-9 | First of all, props to Falcons Twitter for this gem before the game, and it played out exactly as expected. Both teams did their best to try giving it away at the end, but the Chargers ended up on the winning side this time around. The Chargers had their hiccups again but there were improvements across the board; Justin Herbert's 81.8% completion percentage is his highest of the season, the defense came away with 3 INTs, and special teams probably had their best day. The Chargers get a short week before a Thursday Night tilt in Las Vegas. |
| 28. | | Texans | -4 | 4-9 | The Texans are lucky that Paxton is the Texas AG, otherwise they would have had the biggest blowout loss in the state this past week. |
| 29. | | Cowboys | -- | 4-9 | The Red Rifle won his revenge game, the defense forced multiple turnovers, and the Bengals were held to 3.4 yards per carry. All that, and the Cowboys still come out of the week with a top 5 draft pick. Honestly, Sunday couldn't have gone better. Now, the only question is whether this was the team turning the corner and the beginning of a strong finish to the season, or this was just a perfect moment of the Cowboys finding a shittier team with serious injuries issues and just doing what should happen in that scenario. |
| 30. | | Bengals | -- | 2-10-1 | Giovani Bernard hadn't fumbled since 2013 before his 1st quarter fumble on Sunday. So what does he get for his troubles? A spot on the bench thanks to Zac Taylor. Giovani was one of the only veterans who spoke out in behalf of Taylor and the current coaches when multiple articles were released with "sources" saying that Taylor had lost the locker room last month. You have to question the benching for multiple reasons as the directionless Bengals continue to flounder to blowout losses. Just another reason why this should be Zac Taylor's last season as head coach in Cincinnati. |
| 31. | | Jaguars | -- | 1-12 | This one felt more as expected. Perhaps it was in former GM Dave Caldwell's plans— no, wait, hear me out. Adjusting tinfoil hat; Based on the moves taken this offseason to seemingly dump talent from the Jaguars in attempt to amass more draft picks, perhaps the former front office of the Jaguars were banking on this season not being played, due to pandemic reasons. Sure, this may sound farfetched, but I'd like to hear a more reasonable explanation for fielding such a disaster as this team, this season. |
| 32. | | Jets | -- | 0-13 | The Jets have now scored on 7 consecutive opening drives, the longest streak in the NFL. After climbing to an early 3-0 lead, I watched Peter Sawkins make an excellent cranachan custard slice on The Great British Bake Off. |
Here's an in-depth breakdown of Super Bowl LV:
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We have made it! All 256 regular season and – since this year – twelve playoff games are in the books and there is just one matchup left to decide who will be crowned NFL champions. There are so many storylines leading up to the big game – the GOAT Tom Brady versus the kid Patrick Mahomes, two of the all-time great tight-ends on either side of the ball wearing number 87, the Buccaneers becoming the first ever team to host a Super Bowl in their home stadium, Andy Reid after all this time of coming up short, potentially winning back-to-back titles, while Bruce Arians is looking to finally get his first ring as a head coach and potentially becoming the oldest one to earn one in history, and many others.
As I do every year, I wanted to give a detailed look ahead to the big game, where I break down who these teams are, kind of how they got here and how they match up against each other. To do so I put together analysis of each offense and defense, plus where each could have the advantage, then I take a look back at when these two teams first met back in week 12, explain what they have and/or should have learned from it, give you an X-factor on either side of the ball for both and finally hand out my score prediction, while explaining what I believe will happen.
Let’s dive into it!
Buccaneers offense vs. Chiefs defense:
The Tampa Bay offense has been transitioning throughout the season. Early on it was Bruce Arians’ system with a lot of 12 and even 13 personnel, trying to establish a gap-scheme power run game and taking play-action shots off it from under center. And then a second offense was kind of implemented, which was more suited to what Tom Brady was used to in New England, where they spread the field and attack defenses with the quick game. However, it really was two separate playbooks almost, that they worked in. I think we have seen a little more of a symbiotic relationship, which I believe Byron Leftwich has had a big role in putting together. They motion their backs in and out or use their receivers as pre-snap coverage indicators at a much higher rate, letting Brady be surgical in the quick passing game, but still attacking vertically and using Gronk and the tight-ends as that extra in-line blocker to get enough time, because Brady still more than enough juice in his arm to push the ball down the field. Since week ten, Cameron Brate has also played about 41 percent of the snaps and I believe he gives them more versatility in what they can be from two tight-end personnel, since he can basically be a big slot for them. Their receiving corp as a whole offers a lot of versatility, whether it’s Mike Evans moving more into the slot this season, Antonio Brown being able to line up at any of the receiver spots or specialists like Scotty Miller to attack down the field.
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It’s a well-established narrative that if you can get to Tom Brady early, he becomes a much less effective passer and if you look at the five games, that they have come up short in 2020 (Saints twice, Bears, Rams and Chiefs), they have lost the battle up front offensively. Since their week 13 bye, following their last loss to Kansas City (including the playoffs), they have gone undefeated whilst averaging 34.3 points per game, with at least 30 in all three postseason battles. Looking at those games in particular, the defense was dominant at New Orleans and set up scoring opportunities directly, but against Washington and Green Bay, they completed a combined 11 passes of 20+ yards. So it is still very much about the big plays through the air (finished top three in 20+ and 40+ yard passes), but the efficiency of this offense has really gone up to a different level. At Detroit they were so dominant that Brady sat out the entire second half, then they scored on all but one of their possessions against Atlanta and now over this three-game road playoff run, they have had only three combined three-and-outs and turnovers in each of them. A big key to that has been the Bucs offensive line keeping Brady clean, as he has gotten sacked only 11 times over their active seven-game win streak and just once in all but two of those contests. To go with having better solutions to beat the blitz in their system.
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Unlike a lot of modern NFL offenses, that have incorporated more RPO elements and try to create numbers advantages in the run game with spread sets, Bruce Arians still brings that old-school flair with multiple tight-end sets and the power run game. There’s not a lot of wide zone blocking, but rather they create vertical movement at the point of attack with a heavy dose of duo, get those big offensive linemen on the move on toss plays and then I love watching those receivers get involved as blockers in the box – especially Chris Godwin, who they seriously have leading up in the hole or trapping three-techniques. When they run play-action off those looks, they use a lot of seven- and eight-man protections and try to hit defenses over the top, whether it’s deep crossers and posts or straight go routes down the sideline. As much success as they have with that recipe, when you look at the analytics, their tendency to run the ball on early downs shows there’s plenty of improvement in terms of efficiency, which is something I want to see them do in this game, to not get behind the chains and allow the Chiefs defense to be as creative on third down. When they go into shotgun and spread the field more, they look for ways to attack the middle of the field with their inside receivers primarily and when they see one-on-one on the outside with Mike Evans or Antonio Brown, they will take their shots. Double-moves are a large ingredient to what they do, especially out-and-up routes.
For the Chiefs defense, they looked like they had carried over that momentum from last year’s Super Bowl run into 2020, not giving up more than 20 points in any of their first four games. In week five, the Raiders out of nowhere exploded for 40 points and handed them their only loss outside of week 17, when they rested several starters, before having three more great showings at Buffalo, Denver and then hosting the Jets. But since then, they have allowed at least 24 points in six of their final eight games. Part of that negative turnaround was the injuries they have had in the secondary and the lack of takeaways (one per game). The biggest piece however has been their inability to keep teams out of the end-zone when they got close. Looking at the whole regular season, no other team has allowed their opponents to create a higher rate of their red-zone trips into touchdowns (74.1%). That’s why so many of their games stayed close deep into the fourth quarter, which I’ll get to more in a little bit. When you look into play-calling, you can see that they played a lot more zone-coverage and rushed only four or five, because they simply didn’t have the guys their could trust to cover in man. Outside of one game, where they felt like they had a great feel for the opposing route-patterns, which I’ll get to soon.
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Yet, once again, that unit has stepped up in the postseason and the two things that stand out to me are defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s brilliant game-planning and their ability to stop one-dimensional offenses. When I look at what they did against the Browns, if you take away one 23-yard burst from Nick Chubb, Cleveland’s elite running back duo was held to 78 yards on 18 carries, as Spagnuolo gave their opponents a lot of looks that they didn’t want to run into and then had a safety drop out of the box late. Then in the AFC title game, to take away Buffalo’s dynamic passing offense (which ranked top three in all major categories), they played a lot of cover-two and two-man, where their DBs pressed the hell out of the Bills receivers and then they played a lot of different versions of those two-high shells, like invert cover-two or bringing Tyrann Mathieu down as the MIKE in Tampa-two basically, which forced Josh Allen to hold onto the ball. What I can promise you is that they aren’t afraid of bringing heavy pressure and then having their coverage defenders well-schooled in the concepts they should focus on taking away primarily while the Honeybadger is often allowed to move pretty freely as the robber. Frank Clark hasn’t quite lived up to his contract, but he has had big moments in the playoffs these last two years, Chris Jones is one of the most disruptive interior D-linemen in the game, who they can move all over the line, and they have several big bodies they can rotate through to stay fresh and eat double-teams.
Chiefs offense vs. Bucs defense:
As much as we all love the Kansas City offense and we see them as this unit that blows us away with flashy play-designs and throws over the top, they have really been alternating their approach over the course of the season as well. When you go all the way back to their season-opener against the Texans, you see that they used more of a West Coast and RPO-oriented attack to punish a defense that played a lot of soft zones and invited them to throw the ball short. However, two weeks later at Baltimore, they were destroying the Ravens’ single-high safety and man-coverage principles by letting their speedy receivers streak down the field and call double-moves at 15+ yards of depth. Then three weeks after that, when they found themselves in a rainy setting at Buffalo against a soft interior run defense, they pounded the ball 46 times for almost 250 yards on the ground. So they have shown the ability to adapt to their opponents. However, with several injuries on the offensive line – most notably a turnstile at left guard and those two tackles, which will now both be out for the Super Bowl – and opposing defenses taking the approach of using a lot more split-safety looks and trying to take away the big play, they have turned back into being more methodical in their plan and putting together long drives. In the AFC Championship game in particular, with Patrick Mahomes coming off a turf toe injury, their gameplan and drive charts look almost like what they used to with Alex Smith, in terms of the West Coast designs and those glance or slant routes on the backside of RPO concepts.
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When you look at this KC offense, they have had large stretches of getting static in games and as great as they are at moving the ball between the 20s, they are only 14th league-wide in red-zone touchdown percentage (61%). Some people may not realize this, but since their week eight blowout win over the Jets, they had not won a game by more than six points until the AFC title game. That is due to a combination of tendency to start slow, their poor red-zone efficiency and the inability to run the ball consistently with all the movement they have had on the O-line, having rushed for 135+ yards just three times all season. With that being said, Darrell Williams has been a big factor as a power runner these playoff and rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be back to full health. In addition to that, they find other ways to put the ball in the hands of their skill-players quickly, using the speed of their receiving crew on bubbles and speed sweeps, to go along with well-designed longer-developing screens, such as the double swing-fake and then middle screen to Travis Kelce. They also use their star tight-end quite a bit on those power shovels in short-yardage situations and I believe their most effective run play is the speed option, because of the way Mahomes can manipulate that end-man at the line.
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While I have seen them run anything from 23 personnel to going empty with Kelce detached from the line (so basically a five-wide situation), there are a few things the Chiefs love to run. Their go-to formation is a three-by-one set with Kelce as the single receiver, mostly flexed out wide, but also in-line. In 2019 they ran three verticals from that trips side and then had Kelce on a shallow crosser over and over again. This year they still run it quite a bit, but they let the tight-end run more corner or curl routes, to allow inside receivers from the other side attack the middle of the field and isolate their backs against the linebackers, in addition to running power that way. And then they motion someone like Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman across, which for the most part gets opposing defense to move into two-high coverages and play off. So if KC runs either one up the seams, there’s usually a ton of space underneath. The two things that take this offense to the next level however, are trick plays and off-script production. What makes Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy great is not only their ability to exploit defensive schemes, but they are so creative and don’t shy away from throwing reverse passes, underhand shovels to their fullback or digging up tape from the 1948 Rose Bowl. And then there’s all the thing Mahomes can do off script. That guy is so slippery to extend plays while continuing to look downfield and his pass-catchers are so adept at adjusting on the fly and finding the open areas, especially that sixth sense-like connection he has with Kelce.
I have been higher on the Bucs defense for pretty much the entire year, which was really up and down for them as a unit. They have had moments of dominance, like keeping three straight opponents to under 50 rushing yards each or holding Green Bay’s number-one ranked offense to just 10 points in their regular season meeting, but they also gave up a combined 72 points in their first two meetings with the Saints and got lit up for over 450 yards through the air when hosting these same Chiefs back in week 12 (I’ll analyze that matchup in detail in our next segment). During this playoff run however, they have really stepped up in big moments to get them to this point. Whether it’s forcing four turnovers at New Orleans or sacking Aaron Rodgers five times and making a historically great red-zone offense settle for a couple of chip-shot field goals at Green Bay. When you look at their duo of edge rushers, Shaq Barrett is tied for the lead-league in QB hurries (24) and only three players in the NFL (all DBs) have forced more turnovers than Jason Pierre-Paul (six). Then they have the most dynamic linebacker tandem in all of football, which are heavily involved in their pressure packages and make it nearly impossible to get outside the tackle box in the run game, and now with Vita Vea back in the lineup, they have a wall on the inside that nobody can run on consistently. That’s how they finished the regular season as the clear number one run defense in the league. The secondary has been the problem child at times, especially when defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has put them in pure man-coverage, but by moving their safeties around more to bracket and help in certain areas of the field, they have really improved in that department.
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Bowles is an aggressive play-caller by nature and they have created a lot of problems for opposing offenses by bringing one more than you can block (blitzed on 39% of plays). It has bitten them in their behind at times as well, but from what I have seen on tape, they have been more strategic in how they use it. Especially on third downs, I love how they have used their safeties as moving pieces, having them key on certain areas of the field or defending the sticks. In the NFC Championship game for example, one of the biggest plays of the afternoon was that Aaron Jones fumble at the start of the second half, when the Packers thought they had defeated the man-coverage with a shallow crosser to Jones whilst picking the underneath coverage, but Jordan Whitehead raced up from the other side of the field and jarred the ball loose just as the RB tried to turn upfield and convert on third down. That willingness to drive on routes is also apparent when they run quarters coverage and you see Whitehead and rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. break on the ball, looking to take somebody’s head off, while they are also heavily involved in their blitz packages. That combined with those guys coming off the edges, Ndamokung as a bully on the inside and a pretty unknown contributor in William Gholston has them ranking in the top five in sacks, pressure percentage, turnovers and tackles for loss.
Examining the first matchup:
Like I already mentioned, these two teams met back in week 12. The Chiefs jumped out to an early 17-0 lead in the first quarter, with Tyreek Hill racking up over 200 receiving yards over those 15 minutes already and the Bucs offense having just one combined first down over the first four possessions. Kansas City was in the red-zone once more mid-way through the second quarter, but a Shaquille Barrett strip-sack gave Brady & company the ball with some life and they were able to go on the board. That really got things to click and they fought their way back to being down only three, despite a couple of interceptions for Tampa Bay’s QB killing drives, because after scoring a touchdown on their initial try for the Chiefs, the Bucs defense really stepped up and held their opponents scoreless the rest of the way. However, Mahomes and Hill were able to run down the final four minutes and close the game, not giving Brady’s troops another chance, as they were coming off consecutive TD drives at the end, to secure a 27-24 victory.
While the Chiefs certainly took their foot off the gas pedal and tried to run the ball more, which KC outside of what Mahomes did, rushed for only 59 yards on 16 carries, I really thought this was a breaking point for Tampa Bay as a team. The offense started finding a groove and the only two drives that didn’t result in points from that final first half possession on, ended in picks. The defense on the other hand adjusted what they were doing in coverage and held that explosive KC attack to just ten points through the final three quarters. So while I think the result may be a little deceiving and the Chiefs could have easily won by double-digits, I look back at this as more of a launching pad for a team that has been the best in the NFC from that point on and now represents that conference in the big game, with a chance to learn from their early mistakes. Here are a few things that really stood out to me when they first met:
When you look back at the ridiculous first quarter Tyreek Hill had at Tampa Bay, what really stands out is how much he was left one-on-one in coverage, often times with Carlton Davis, who has had a good season in general, but is a bigger corner who ran in the low 4.5s at the combine – no way can he keep up consistently against the fastest man in football. Davis did follow Tyreek for the most part, in particular when he was the single receiver or the #3 in that trips set with Travis Kelce soloed up on the opposite side. And the Chiefs did a great job of creating those one-on-ones with motions, where they moved Kelce in line or forced Davis to trail Hill, when he came across the formation from that trips alignment. Tyreek’s two long touchdown came on a subtle double-move after they motioned Kelce in and then on a streak across the field as the #3 from trips. That opened up the middle of the field later on for Kelce on hook and dig routes. Something else Kansas City did in the first half particularly was using more 12 and even 13 personnel than I had seen from them all season long. They still couldn’t run the ball a lick out of those sets, but they were effective in the passing game when used, especially chipping both those guys off the edges for Tampa, with one of the TEs and the running back.
https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/8b7dchqzbif61/player
Tampa Bay called a lot of passing concepts with five-man protections early versus Kansas City bringing an array of blitzes (18 on 42 drop-backs). Especially on third downs, they were able to create at least one free rusher and then they had one or two defenders bailing out to take away the middle of the field. However, the Bucs made some very effective adjustments in the second half with hot-route to defeat those blitzes and putting that “bail defender” I will call it here in a bind, with a seam and spot route underneath for example. Of course the Chiefs still got two interceptions off Brady, that stopped promising drives, but when you look at what went wrong on those plays, first Ronald Jones overset to the outside trying to pick up Tyrann Mathieu off the edge, which led to an underthrown deep ball by Brady that was brought in by Bashaun Breeland along the sideline, as Scotty Miller got pushed out wide on his release, and then Mathieu got an INT of his own, as Mike Evans didn’t recognize the pressure and the ball went off the helmet of a blitzing Daniel Sorensen. In general, they were able to get the ball out quickly – especially to their tight-ends – to take advantage of limited resources in coverage and on the final two drives, when KC brought heat almost every single snap, they were punished for it.
What each team can take away:
A couple of adjustments that I already saw in the first meeting or that I would like to see for each team would be:
For the Bucs, the one thing I want to see most is using more dummy counts to show pressure pre-snap and give Brady a clear picture. Whether they try to block it up with the tight-ends and backs in protection or alert the hot read, the more information they can get from a Spagnuolo defense that prides itself on disguising pressures and coverages, they more adept they will be at defeating those. Once they do that, this could turn into a chess match, where the Chiefs show something different intentionally to make Brady kill the original play and then have to pull the ball down anyway, as the picture changes once the snap is off. And something else they should take advantage of is isolating what is a below-average group of linebackers in the passing game. Their RB core isn’t overly impressive in terms of their receiving abilities, especially when you look at the amount of drops we have seen from Leonard Fournette, but maybe they dig LeSean McCoy out more for this matchup and see if he can win on option routes and Tampa actually put AB in the backfield a couple of times in the backfield in their prior meeting, only they ran him downfield on wheel routes.
Defensively I already saw some stuff that I really through quarters two to four, in terms of using their safety tandem to bracket Hill and Kelce on a lot of snaps and on key downs in particular, forcing the ancillary pieces of that offense to beat them. I will mention one of my X-factors and his role in how that “gamble” could end up in the next segment, but those two guys accounted for 55.5 percent of Kansas City’s total passing yardage. So it’s certainly a chance worth taking and if you go with a game-plan, where your two stand-up guys on the second level are more involved in covering space underneath, as Tyreek may be utilized as more of a decoy that runs off the deep coverage, you can eliminate a lot of yardage after the catch, since teams that rush four and play coverage have been the ones giving the Chiefs some issues at times. However, that doesn’t mean that I don’t want the Bucs to not use their linebackers as blitzing threats. They should try to cover up the open gaps with those guys and create one-on-ones across the board, to enable their edge rushers to dominate against KC’s backup tackles. And something the Browns against them a few times, which I really liked, was rushing four or five, but not giving up assets in coverage, as they had somebody drop out to replace those blitzers and still create a free rusher.
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On the Chiefs’ side, I really liked the plan of chipping those two guys off the edges, as I already discussed, with an extra tight-end on the field, and while they are a spread-oriented offense, they had a lot of success when they used 12 personnel and threw the ball out of those looks. Because you can’t cover the whole field and have to take away what Kansas City sends vertically, those TEs and backs are often times all by themselves as they release into the flats. If that happens, like it did in their prior meeting, Mahomes has to take the free yardage and open up the deeper areas of the field again, as the Bucs have to re-adjust. The other thing I can tell you for sure is that the Bucs are obviously terrified of Tyreek burning them deep again and I’m sure there won’t be many chances to just attack their corners in man-coverage for big plays. So if they give Hill a lot soft cushions, they have to repeat what did to the Bills’ Tre’Davious White in terms of getting him the ball quickly on smoke routes and forcing those guys to tackle their electric receiver. While vertical prowess has to be used as a decoy, in terms of putting him in the slot of those three-by-one sets and having him run up the seam, while you attack underneath that. If you get Mecole Hardman one-on-one with their third-best CB on a post-corner route, while the flanker runs a hitch or square-in to bind the guy on the outside, that could be free money.
When I switch to defense, they had a ton of success bringing the blitz and not allowing Brady to step into throws. I would certainly say they were happy with that game-plan and they have reason to feel confident in the guys they have on the back-end, with the way they have showed out so far in the postseason. However, I have now talked about this at length and the Bucs have watched that tape over and over again. There is no way, those guys will be as ill-prepared to counter those pressure packages as they were back in November. Hell, Brady was dicing them up in the fourth quarter and I just detailed how those two picks came about. So Steve Spagnuolo can still bring the heat in certain situations and test Tampa Bay in their ability to pick up the blitz, but he has to be more strategic in how he uses it. The second thing to consider here is how you mask those linebackers, when you decide to utilize them more in coverage. Those players can be very effective as downhill thumpers in the run game, taking on pulling guards and filling holes, but they aren’t great in space. The Raiders in their two matchups against Kansas City had a lot of success attacking that area of the field with crossing routes. Chris Godwin and Gronk would be guys for that task, so maybe if you have them to one side, the opposite linebacker is the one you blitz and you bring down Sorensen or Mathieu to replace him in that hook-area, while looking to pick up anybody working across the field.
X-factors:
https://preview.redd.it/3hthyyz2cif61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=05ce975ec5a0319694f3e404cce356c9e82c60c4 Buccaneers – Aaron Stinnie & Jamel Dean
I’m not going to give you a name like Scotty Miller here, because at this point, he is more likely to catch at least one deep ball than not. Ronald Jones’ health will be key as well, to give the Bucs that physical one-two punch out of the backfield. However, I’m going with their starting right guard Aaron Stinnie, who just got his first two starts of the year during these playoffs. The Bucs O-line has been dominant over the course of this seven-game win streak, like I already mentioned, holding opponents to just 11 sacks combined in those games and an average of 115 rushing yards during these playoffs, despite some tough competition. Alex Cappa was one of the road-graders on the interior for Tampa and only missed three total snaps throughout the regular season, before fracturing his ankle mid-way through their Wildcard game at Washington. Stinnie has since stepped since then and played pretty well, but he was also responsible for the only sack on Brady in the NFC Championship game at Green Bay, when Kenny Clark went right through him on a bull rush. Well, the challenge will not get any easier, as I’d expect the Chiefs to line up Chris Jones in the B-gap as much as possible and try to exploit that matchup, on passing downs in particular. That’s why it will be crucial for Tampa Bay to stay ahead of the chains, unlike they did in the first matchup, and slow the rush down a little bit. Good thing Stinnie is lined up in-between arguably the top rookie right tackle of 2020 in rookie Tristan Wirfs and one of the better centers in Ryan Jensen, who will be looking to land a rib-shot on the guy over Stinnie, on the snaps that he is uncovered for.
As for the Bucs defense, that whole group of corners will have to step up in a major way, as they hope to slow down this explosive KC passing attack. Obviously, Carlton Davis’ name will come up a whole lot early on during the broadcast, as Tony Romo and Jim Nantz show what Tyreek Hill did to him early on in that week 12 meeting, and I could see Hill be matched up with Sean Murphy-Bunting in the slot a whole lot as well, but since I expect the safety to that side to keep his eyes constantly on him, when he lines up inside and makes it easier to bracket to some degree. Instead, I’m looking at Jamel Dean, who primarily is Tampa Bay’s field-side corner, unless they have Davis travelling with the opposing team’s number one receiver in certain matchups, which I wouldn’t expect, as the Bucs coaches go back to the tape of that first matchup. If Todd Bowles is smart – and from what I’ve seen from his as a coach, as much as aggressiveness may have hurt him at times, he is – he will build on what they did in the second half of that last game, when he used his two safeties to bracket Hill and Kelce almost every snap and forced the rest of that receiving corp to beat them. That puts the spotlight on guys like Sammy Watkins if they line him up more at Z, Demarcus Robinson and others, as those guys will pretty much be one-on-one with Dean. While the coverage numbers would indicate otherwise – in part because he draws the easiest assignments – to me he is the weakest link of this secondary and has been highly vulnerable to double-moves. The Chiefs might be burn him once more on Sunday.
https://preview.redd.it/tof7xfc4cif61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=acd57311d38bd8217491b102f927017514a6b1bd Chiefs – Andrew Wylie & Juan Thornhill
I thought about going Sammy Watkins here for the Chiefs offense, because he hasn’t suited up for them since week 16 and he hasn’t caught at least five passes in a game since week three, but averaged almost 100 receiving yards during last year’s playoff run. And you should also get accustomed with who wears number 48 for them, because Nick Keizer may have only caught six passes through the regular season, but he has become KC’s TE2 on the depth chart, playing just over a quarter of the snaps, and he could have a key role as an extra protector or chipping those edge rushers. Instead, I’m going with KC’s new starter at right tackle, who was slotted in at RG for all but one game so far. With blindside protector Eric Fisher unfortunately tearing his Achilles late in the AFC title game, Mike Remmers – who originally replaced Mitchell Schwartz on the right end of the line – is now switching sides and Andrew Wylie is sliding one spot outside. And he will face a tough task, after only having started one game on the edge against the Saints and now getting a heavy load of Shaq Barrett, who primarily rushed off that side. Let’s see if Wylie has the quickness in his kick-slide to counter Barrett’s speed and if the latter can get him on a dip-maneuver, like he beat Eric Fisher for a strip-sack on when these two teams last met. Steven Wisniewski will step in at Wylie’s original spot, but he has been one of the most dependable veteran linemen of the last decade in my opinion.
Defensively, I’m looking at the guy who missed Kansas City’s Super Bowl run last year, after an excellent rookie campaign. Their secondary was the star of the show against Buffalo, to send them to the Super Bowl, by disrupting route patterns at the line of scrimmage and not allowing receivers to separate late. A big reason they felt comfortable doing that was their safety tandem, with Tyrann Mathieu being in more of a robber role and dropping down in Tampa-2, to go along with the rangy Juan Thornhill, who broke up four passes and nearly picked off two of them. Steve Spagnuolo has those safeties doing a ton of late rotations, bailing Daniel Sorensen out for two-high shells, Honeybadger turning into a freely roaming robber and often times Thornhill ending up as the deep middle safety. As a single-high defender, he makes it almost impossible to push the ball down the hashes and he has the ability to make plays outside numbers. That will be crucial against all the deep balls Tampa Bay attempts and if one of those corners loses Mike Evans or Antonio Brown off the line by lunging in press, he could be the guy who decides if there will be a 40+ yard gain or maybe even an interception, if Brady puts too much air under the ball and tries to give his receiver time to track it. I can’t wait to watch that chess game between the Chiefs’ second-year safety and the ultimate student of the game in Brady, who will try to manipulate him with his eyes and body language, in order to keep the defender away from where he wants to go with the ball.
Prediction:
On paper, the Bucs have the better and healthier roster at this moment. You look at the offensive line in particular, where they still have four of their day one starters, while the Chiefs’ only full-time starter at his original position is center Austin Reiter and they will have two guys at those tackle spots, that have barely never played there for Kansas City. In terms of pass-catchers, it’s hard to argue that you could put anybody above the Chiefs group of track stars, but you don’t need a full hand to count off the teams that you would put ahead of the Bucs. There is also a pretty clear advantage on the defensive line for the home team, when you look at them being top three in pressure percentage, while KC is outside the top ten. And while I would give the Chiefs the nod in terms of the back-end, seeing how they have stepped up so far this postseason at full health, the Bucs’ group has made plenty of plays to take them to the Super Bowl and linebacker is not even a competition, watching Devin White and Lavonte David fly around the field. And of course, they have the number one rush defense, while the Chiefs rank 21st, and they are both average at running the ball themselves.
Schematically, Tampa certainly has to make some adjustments, as I have already discussed in length, having solutions for the blitz packages Steve Spagnuolo will throw at them and not allowing the Chiefs two main weapons to beat them. Right now, I give the clear advantage to the reigning champs when it comes to the coaching staffs and as great as Brady has been for two decades now and the how clutch he has been on the game’s biggest stage, we may be witnessing the one guy, who has a chance of dethroning him one day as the GOAT. Spags has a proven track record of success against Brady and I’m sure Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy have been in the lab, cooking up new things to throw at the Bucs defense, figuring out ways to score points all four quarters, but in the end it comes down to Patrick Mahomes being able to make plays nobody else in football can. Shaq Barrett and JPP could have a field day against these two backup tackles and I think Todd Bowles will also have a couple of things up his sleeves that the Chiefs haven’t seen, but last year’s Super Bowl MVP is the ultimate equalizer. He will shake out of a sack and find Kelce for a huge third-down conversion and he will have another like twelve-step drop and fire a deep ball off his back-foot to break Tampa’s neck.
https://preview.redd.it/njt5v586cif61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c20c0b875bf0f9fb7d19841500f93ec8ad78f42
Chiefs 34 – Bucs 28
So give me the Chiefs here and I’ll take the chalk with Mahomes earning MVP honors, winning back-to-back titles and setting the foundation for a potential dynasty in Kansas City.
If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could
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Also make sure to check out my video on the
ten biggest questions heading into Super Bowl LV!
Ranking Sunday's games by watchability
I seem to remember someone doing this a few years back and really enjoying it, so I thought I'd give it a shot with the condensed schedule leaving so many games on the schedule each night. I'm ranking each game in three categories: competitiveness, importance, and style points/storylines (which includes star power, the style of basketball, and any intriguing stories to watch). I'll include a survey at the end where you can predict the winners of each game!
Let me know if this is something you'd like to see again!
10) Milwaukee Bucks (1-1) vs. New York Knicks (0-2) at 7:30 pm EST Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Milwaukee -11
Last Meeting: January 14th, 2020. RJ Barrett drained five threes and Bobby Portis scored 20 off the bench, but the Bucks dominated the Knicks at Fiserv Forum 128-102. The two teams combined for a whopping 79 points in the third quarter.
The Bucks have won their last five meetings with the Knicks, with the last New York win coming in an overtime thriller at the Garden in December of 2018.
Competitiveness: A championship contender that dismantled the Warriors by 40 facing the Knicks on the tail end of a back-to-back. Not much else to say here.
1.5/10 Importance: This game is essentially a scheduled win for the Bucks, and a chance for the Knicks to test their young guys and let them grow up a little. Unfortunate that Obi Toppin will be on the sidelines for this one.
2/10 Style Points: The high-flying Bucks offense has been off to another hot start, topping the 120 point mark in both of their games. The Knicks' young guns have shown promise and made so flashy plays, but they also turn the ball over a lot. Neither team tends to foul a lot or shoot a ton of free throws, which will help game flow.
Some might keep an eye on Giannis' free throw shooting, but the real story to watch is RJ Barrett's three point accuracy. He lit it up from distance against Indiana, but struggled mightily against Philly. Can he take a step forward in that department this season?
Bonus points for the MSG crew calling this game.
6/10 Overall Rating:
3/10 9) Brooklyn Nets (2-0) vs. Charlotte Hornets (0-2) at 7:00 pm EST Where to Watch: NBA TV
Spread: Brooklyn -7.5
Last Meeting: February 22nd, 2020. The Nets used a third quarter explosion to turn a comfortable win into a rout as they won 115-86. Luwawu-Cabarrot led the team in scoring with 21, while Garrett Temple of all people snagged eleven boards.
Competitiveness: The Nets have steamrolled over their competition so far, blowing out the Warriors and Celtics by 20+ points. The Hornets have struggled with two losses to non-contenders, and come into this game on the wrong end of a back-to-back.
1.5/10 Importance: A contending Nets team cannot afford to drop games like this one, especially in the early part of the season when there are so many eyeballs on KD and Kyrie. The Hornets could really use a positive performance to get their season headed in the right direction.
4/10 Style Points: The Nets have stars all over the court and have looked like a juggernaut early this season, making them one of the most intriguing teams to watch, and a fun one too, as they've played fast and made lots of threes. Charlotte ranked last in pace of play last season but seems to be trying to pick things up. You'll get the Charlotte crew for this game on NBA TV, and they call a fun game.
Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward are two guys to pay attention to- Rozier dropped 42 on a Cavs team that sucks at defending point guards. Is he headed for a breakout season? Hayward was shut down by the Thunder last night and will look to get things going. Plus LaMelo Ball!
8/10 Overall:
4.4/10 8) Golden State Warriors (0-2) vs. Chicago Bulls (0-2) at 8:00 pm EST Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Golden State -2.5
Last Meeting: December 6th, 2019. Glenn Robinson III made the go-ahead layup with a minute left and a very different looking Warriors team beat the Bulls 100-98 in Chicago. Denzel Valentine was ejected in the third quarter for yelling at the Warriors' bench.
Competitiveness: The Warriors have been blown out by two great teams so far. The Bulls have been blown out by two mediocre teams and just played a deflating contest against the Pacers last night.
4.5/10 Importance: Both teams could really use their first win of the season. The Warriors cannot afford to lose to teams like the Bulls if they're going to contend for the playoffs. This probably still figures as a matchup of two non-contenders, though.
5.5/10 Style Points: The Bulls have lots of exciting young players, but they seem turnover-prone and have struggled to score. Neither team has been able to stop literally anyone on defense so far (lol thanks Golden State for taking Wiggins), so there's a chance this turns into one of those ridiculous shootouts where both teams top 70 in the first half.
Patrick Williams looked good in his first game against the Hawks, but the Pacers were able to shut him down. Watching him adjust to the breakneck pace of games and the new level of competition will be interesting. The Warriors will need to find other sources of offense besides Curry and Wiseman, and this game is a perfect chance for them to do so. Definitely opt for the Chicago broadcast if you tune in.
4.5/10 Overall:
4.8/10 ** 7)Philadelphia 76ers (2-0) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2-0) at 7:30 pm EST**
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Philadelphia -6
Last Meeting: February 26th, 2020. The Sixers had to play most of the game without their two best players as Joel Embiid left in the first quarter with a sprained shoulder. The Cavs, then the worst team in the East, led the entire way and won 108-94.
Competitiveness: The Cavs look like a much better team this year as Sexton has another year under his belt and they have Drummond underneath. There's a long way to go to challenge the Sixers, though, and they played an exhausting two-overtime trench war with the Pistons last night while Philly coasted to an easy win over the Knicks.
5/10 Importance: Definitely a litmus test game for the Cavs- can they hang with Philly and prove that they can be that dangerous team no one wants to face in the east play-in tournament? The 76ers might be looking past this game as they have a big clash with Tampa Bay coming up on Tuesday.
4/10 Style Points: This game gives us two matchups between stars. Joel Embiid has been on a mission to start this season, following up his 29/14 against Washington with a 27/10 against the Knicks. His matchup with Andre Drummond will be one to watch. At point guard, Simmons-Sexton could be an even more exciting face-off. The Cavs have played a more fun style of basketball this season, using Sexton to ignite a high pressure defense that stole a win in Detroit. That double-overtime win might prove costly tonight, though, when they run out of gas against a deeper and more talented Sixers team. Bonus points for the Cavs having that really fun color guy, I guess.
6.75/10 Overall:
5.25/10 6) Minnesota Timberwolves (2-0) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (1-1) at 10:00 pm EST Where to watch: NBA TV
Spread: Los Angeles -11
Last Meeting: December 8th, 2019. AD dropped half a hundred and LeBron put up 32 and thirteen assists as the Lakers won a 142-125 slugfest. The Wolves hung around and trailed by only seven after three quarters before LA pulled away.
Competitiveness: The Wolves are off to a surprising 2-0 start, including an impressive win in Utah last night. Most would write this off as a scheduled loss, though, with a back-to-back against the defending champs and KAT getting dinged up at the end of the Jazz game. Still, it will be interesting to see how this new-look Wolves team trades punches with AD and Bron in the first half.
6/10 Importance: The Lakers seem to finally be settling into the new season after a disappointing showing on opening night, and will be looking for another statement win. Some Wolves fans have speculated that they will rest KAT after his injury scare tonight. I'd expect him to play, but no one in Minnesota thinks they will win this game.
3/10 Style Points: Anthony Edwards going up against two of the best in the game? DLo back in LA? Upstarts against the defending champs? Top notch storylines for this game, where the first half will be a good litmus test for Minnesota, before fatigue probably sets in for guys like Edwards and Culver and the game gets pretty ugly.
Minnesota's defense looks much improved this season, and their explosive bench can keep this game fun. And you know what you're getting with the Lakers' stars. Unfortunately the NBA TV rights to this game mean most fans will get the LA crew and miss out on the top notch Fox Sports North announcers.
8/10 Overall:
5.6/10 5) San Antonio Spurs (2-0) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (1-1) at 7:00 pm EST Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: New Orleans -5
Last Meeting: August 9th, 2020. The Spurs and Pels faced off for a high-scoring showdown in the bubble that saw the two teams combined for 77 fourth quarter points. JJ Redick went off and hit eight threes and Zion chipped in 25, but the rest of their teammates shit the bed and the Spurs won 122-113.
Competitiveness: The Spurs are off to a fast start, most recently squeaking out an impressive win over the Raptors last night. The Pelicans have produced mixed results, but beat Tampa by a more impressive margin and have an extra day of rest. Expect a close one early, with New Orleans having a sizeable edge late.
6.5/10 Importance: Both teams figure to be in the hunt for the final playoff spots and will see each other plenty this season as they are both in the same division. I doubt the Spurs would sweat this B2B loss too much, though.
7/10 Style Points: Zion put up a highlight-worthy 32 and 14 on Christmas Day against the Heat, and the Pels look like a new team on defense, making them one of the most interesting squads to watch this year. Ingram, Redick, Hart, and Lonzo can combine for an offensive explosion at any time. The Spurs can play kind of a bland style sometimes, especially with 35 year old LaMarcus Aldridge playing on a back-to-back. Dejounte Murray, who just posted his first career triple double and looks much improved this season, will be an interesting to player to watch today. This one feels like it could be a snooze-fest or a barn-burner, with nothing in between.
6.75/10 Overall: 6.7/10
4) Boston Celtics (1-1) vs. Indiana Pacers (2-0) at 8:00 pm EST Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Boston -2.5
Last Meeting: Tuesday March 10th, 2020. The Celtics were the last team the Pacers faced before Miss Rona stepped in and put a stop to the basketball for awhile. Marcus Smart made the go-ahead layup to rescue Boston in the final minute after they blew a 19 point lead, and they held on to win 114-111. Sabonis posted a 28-9-8 night for Indiana.
Competitiveness: The Celtics have the rest advantage, as they got the night off to lick their wounds after a Christmas Night Stomping at the hands of KD and Kyrie, while the Pacers had to take the floor last night and beat up on the Bulls. The Pacers figure to be in the middle of the playoff pack, while the Celtics would like to challenge the Bucks and Nets at the top, and this game will be a huge early measuring stick for both teams. The Pacers will have home floor, which makes this anyone's game.
8/10 Importance: It's never too early to have a big game for playoff seeding! The Celtics will be anxious to prove that their opening game win against Milwaukee was no fluke, while the Pacers need to show us that they can beat someone better than the Knicks and Bulls.
7.5/10 Style Points: This is where this game kind of falls short. Tatum, Kemba, Sabonis, Brown, and others all provide lots of star power, but aren't the big names featured elsewhere on this list, and both teams tend to play slower, more defensive-oriented basketball. The Celtics' thumping at the hands of the Nets is more of a story for Brooklyn than for Boston, and Indiana has maybe been the playoff team that jumped off the page less than anyone else so far. Add in a game that's only broadcast locally and that overlaps with every other game but two and this game takes a bump in a packed Sunday night slate.
Still, this should be a very good game between two playoff teams, and a fun one to tune in for down the stretch if the Pacers keep it close.
5.5/10 Overall: 7/10
T-2) Orlando Magic (2-0) vs. Washington Wizards (0-2) at 7:00 pm EST Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Washington -1.5
Last Meeting: Last night! The Magic and Wizards squared off for their first of back-to-back games, which was an exciting back-and-forth contest. The Magic had the edge on the glass for much of the game, which only intensified late as they pulled away and the Wizards started pressing and taking bad shots. Beal went off for 39 points while Westbrook posted a triple-double, proving that they can in fact play together just fine.
Competitiveness: Last night's game was a see-sawing battle for most of the evening. Orlando looks like the better team and one of the more improved squads in the East, if their win against Miami is any indication. Still, beating a team on their home floor twice in a row is extraordinarily difficult, and the Wizards get to regroup and see if they can fix their rebounding woes against the same team. Expect another entertaining toss-up!
9/10 Importance: Both teams are in roughly the same boat: improved squads who will likely find themselves sitting on the edge of the Eastern Conference playoff field. They won't see each other again in the first half of the season, and to pick up a quick two games on their competition would be an enormous boost for Orlando.
7.5/10 Style Points: The Wizards have been playing a fun new style with Russ and Bradley Beal sharing the load on offense, and early speculation about how the pair will get along on the court has been promising. The Magic get the job done with comparatively little star power, but Vucevic has always been one of the more underrated players in the league and deserves some recognition. Terrence Ross and Davis Bertans will be other players to keep an eye on- Ross has been extremely hot offensively in his first two games, while Bertans is a streaky shooter who can be the key to Washington winning or losing.
Perhaps the most interesting storyline, though, is the back-to-back baseball-style two game series. College leagues are trying this out across the country and we've seen in leagues like the MAAC, Mountain West, and others how hard it is for superior teams to beat the same team on consecutive nights. We've also gotten a glimpse of this in the NBA preseason. This time, the teams are very evenly matched. How will the Wizards adjust tonight? What effect will the wonky scheduling have?
8/10 Overall:
8.2/10 T-2) Dallas Mavericks (0-2) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (2-0) at 3:30 pm EST Where to Watch: NBA TV
Spread: Los Angeles -5
Last Meeting: August 30th, 2020. The Clippers knocked the Mavs out of the first round of the playoffs, winning Game 6 after the game was moved back due to the player strike. Doncic dropped 38 and Dorian Finney-Smith chipped in 16, but only one other Dallas played cracked double digits. L.A. moved on to the next round where they cruised through the first four games against the Nuggets and...oh wait hahahahahahahahahaha.
Competitiveness: The Mavs need to get their shit together. They posted a close opening night loss against the Suns and then got their doors kicked in by the Lakers... neither of those are alarming results, but they're not the mark of a playoff team. The Clippers are angry at the way last season ended, ready to take it out on the league, and they've looked like a juggernaut with Nic Batum in their lineup, putting up convincing wins over the other top two teams in the West. Doncic can keep any game close, but he needs his teammates to carry some of the load, and the Clippers are still the clear favourites here.
6.5/10 Importance: Dallas needs to show that they can beat playoff teams, as their schedule for the next few weeks doesn't get any easier after tonight. They'll face the Heat, Rockets, Magic, Nuggets, and Pelicans. They'll have to figure out who their second and third best scoring options are in the process. Both teams will be looking for a statement win on a national stage- they're the only teams playing in the afternoon tomorrow and get a national broadcast on NBA TV.
8/10 Style Points: Kawhi... Luka... PG13.... could you really get any more star power? The Mavs looking for revenge on the team that knocked them out of the playoffs by beating them in a Sunday Showcase game (albeit on NBA TV) in their house provides a great story to go along with the stars. The Clippers have been red hot from three point range to start the season, and a Mavs defense that allowed 138 points to the Lakers will probably provide plenty of opportunities for more fireworks. If not for the potential of a lopsided final score, this would be the #1 game of the day. Tune into this instead of football on a relatively light NFL day.
10/10 Overall:
8.2/10 1) Phoenix Suns (1-1) vs. Sacramento Kings (2-0) at 9:00 pm EST Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Phoenix -3.5
Last Meeting: Last night! Sacramento jumped out to a 15-2 lead, but the Suns almost immediately cut that in half, and tied the game early in the third quarter. The teams traded baskets for much of the second half, with DeAaron Fox and Buddy Hield carrying the offensive load for the Kings, who held on to win thanks to some timely offensive rebounding from Richaun Holmes.
Competitiveness: Aside from the early flurry from the Kings, these teams were as evenly matched as they come, trading punches for the entire second half. The Suns probably won't shoot 11-44 from three point range again tonight, and the Kings will probably take better care of the basketball. Regardless, we're in for a fascinating rematch of two Western Conference playoff hopefuls.
10/10 Importance: Both the Suns and the Kings are exciting young teams with opportunities to improve on last season, and both figure to end up in that 7-10 seed range in the Western Conference. These two teams won't see each other again in the first half of the season, and the Suns cannot afford to drop back-to-back contests against one of their competitors for the last couple of playoff spots. The Kings, meanwhile, were largely overlooked by fans and writers heading into the season and look poised to outperform expectations. Going 3-0 to start the season would do a lot to quiet the doubters. Regardless, this two game series will likely end up mattering down the road.
8/10 Style Points: The Suns were the talk of the NBA Bubble in August and have continued turning heads with their opening night win against the Mavs. Chris Paul's presence at point guard allows them to run a better offense than "just let Devin Booker chuck as many threes as he wants and hope Ayton rebounds enough to let us eke out a close win". They're still a fun, up-tempo team that shoots lots of threes, and finally play some good defense if that's your thing too. Sacramento announced themselves as a team not to be slept on with their opening night win against the Nuggets (thanks Will Barton), and the trend continued last night. They've attempted the fewest threes of any team through two games this year, and their game plan of Fox driving and everyone crashing the glass gives us an intriguing contrast of styles.
Like I mentioned for the Wizards game, the baseball-style series also presents us with interesting questions to answer in this game (how will the Suns adjust on the glass? can the Kings beat the same team twice in a row?), and a nerve-wracking two games between two teams who are very close in talent level and playoff hopes. Perhaps most importantly, Phoenix's broadcast is the only one on League Pass so far that has figured out their on-court audio and actually sounds normal. Keep that one in mind!
8/10 Overall:
8.7/10 I also made a Google Form where you can pick all the winners of today's games... I'll link that below. Thought it would be cool to see how Reddit does predicting the winners. I'll close the form at 3:30 when the Mavs and Clips tip off. I'll try to pare this down length-wise if and when I do this again. Thanks for reading!
Pick the winners here! [Daily Discussion Thread] Game Links + Discuss moves, rumors, etc. - 18 Jan 2021
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[Daily Discussion Thread] Game Threads + Discuss moves, rumors, etc. - 25 Jan 2021
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A Guide To The Carson Wentz Situation
I’m seeing a lot of misinformation about Wentz on this sub, so I thought it would be useful to provide some clear, concise, unbiased, data-driven information about Wentz’ contract and play this season. Hopefully this helps users be more informed about the situation when forming their opinions.
- - - - - What is left on Wentz’ contract? - - - - -
For simplicity, I will be rounding off all the numbers.
Here is a breakdown of Wentz’ contract.
There are three main elements to understand about his contract: his yearly salaries, his signing/option bonus, and his upcoming roster bonus.
Salaries: 15M in ‘21, guaranteed. 22M in ’22; most of this guarantees on March 19, 2021; the rest guarantees at the start of the ’22 season. Salaries in '23 and '24 are not guaranteed. Guaranteed salaries cannot be removed from the cap via a cut, but can be removed from the cap via a trade, as the new team takes on the salaries.
Signing/Option Bonus: 33M. The actual money has already been paid, which means there is no way for the Eagles to remove it from their cap(s). Currently, the cap charges are spread out 9M/9M/9M/6M over ’21-’24. If Wentz is cut or traded after ’20, all of this money goes onto the ’21 cap. Likewise, if he is cut or traded after ’21, the remaining money (24M) goes onto the ’22 cap. There are ways to spread it out over two years instead of one, but no matter what happens, this 33M is going on the Eagles' cap eventually.
Roster Bonus: 10M, guaranteed, paid on March 19, 2021. The Eagles can remove this from their cap by trading Wentz before this date (the new team pays it instead). If he is on the roster on this date, or cut, this 10M counts on their ’21 cap. Wentz does not have a roster bonus in ’22.
If the Eagles keep Wentz in '21, his cap charge is 34M.
Finally, Wentz is scheduled to make an additional 26M in each of ’23 and ’24, but since none of that money is guaranteed, it’s not relevant to the current cap situation. If Wentz is traded or released, all that money goes poof.
- - - - - What happens if the Eagles trade or cut Wentz? - - - - -
It depends on when it happens.
Scenario One: If Wentz is traded before March 19, 2021, he will have a dead cap hit of 33M in ’21, slightly less than his cap charge if they keep him (the actual difference is about 800k). He will be off the books in ’22 and beyond.
Scenario Two: If Wentz is traded after March 19, 2021, but before the season starts, he will have a dead cap hit of 43M in ’21. He will be off the books in ’22 and beyond.
Scenario Three: If Wentz is traded after the ’21 season, he will have a dead cap hit of 24M in ’22. He will be off the books in ’23 and beyond.
Scenario Four: If Wentz is cut before March 19, 2021, he will have a dead cap hit of 49M in ’21. He will be off the books in ’22 and beyond.
Scenario Five: If Wentz is cut after March 19, 2021, but before the season starts, he will have a dead cap hit of 59M in ’21. Also, Howie Roseman will be publicly executed for his crimes against the Eagles salary cap.
Scenario Six: If Wentz is cut after the ’21 season, he will have a dead cap hit of $39M in ’22. He will be off the books in ’23.
NOTE: There are ways to spread out these cap hits over two seasons instead of one. There are also ways to restructure Wentz’ contract prior to a trade, which would change these numbers. For simplicity, I’m not going to cover all those scenarios.
- - - - - What is Wentz’ contract for an acquiring team? - - - - -
It’s important to understand that Wentz' contract is far more palatable to any team that acquires him via a trade, since that team would not be responsible for his signing/option bonus money.
An acquiring team is only responsible for his ’21 salary, his ’22 salary (because it guarantees in '21), and his ’21 roster bonus (assuming the trade is made before March 19, which is likely). That means they would be paying Wentz 25M in ’21, and 22M in ’22. Those are very affordable numbers for a decent starting QB; for comparison, Carolina will pay Bridgewater 23M next season. Cousins’ cap number is 31M next season. Brisett is eating 21M while sitting on the bench this season, and the Colts guaranteed 25M to 39-year-old Rivers.
Further, if the trade works out, an acquiring team could keep Wentz for around 26M in ’23 and ’24, with none of it guaranteed. Those are attractive numbers.
Essentially, an acquiring team is gambling 47M on Wentz. If it works out, they have him on a very reasonable contract for four years. If he plays at '18-'19 levels, his contract would be around market value. If he plays at '17 levels, he would be a bargain, especially in '23 and '24 when the cap will be much higher.
- - - - - How badly has Wentz played this season? - - - - -
I will be using statistics from
Football Outsiders. The relevant statistics are DVOA and DYAR. DVOA “represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations.” DYAR “gives the value of the quarterback's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.” In other words, DVOA is value per play, and DYAR is total accumulated value (basically DVOA times the number of plays).
I will be rounding numbers for simplicity. Rankings are out of the number of QBs who threw at least 200 passes in the given season. These numbers are for passing only; Wentz does add some value with his running, but it’s not a huge amount (average around 40 DYAR per season).
Here are Wentz’ numbers for the past four seasons: 2017: 24% DVOA (ranked 6/35), 1047 DYAR (8/35).
2018: 8% DVOA (13/34), 545 DYAR (14/34).
2019: 0% DVOA (20/34), 476 DYAR (17/34).
2020: -38% DVOA (33/34), -831 DYAR (34/34).
How about some context? Here are the QBs over the past 10 seasons who posted -30% DVOA or worse. Yes, that’s an arbitrary cutoff, so be it.
2016 Goff: -75% (rookie)
2018 Rosen: -54% (rookie)
2011 Gabbert: -47% (rookie)
2012 Quinn: -44%
2019 Haskins: -42% (rookie)
2014 J.McCown: -42%
2020 Darnold: -41%
2014 Bortles: -41% (rookie)
2020 Wentz: -38%
2018 Allen: -36% (rookie)
2013 Weeden: -36%
2017 Kizer: -35% (rookie)
2012 Skelton: -35%
2014 Griffin: -34%
2020 Smith: -33%
2011 Painter: -33% (2nd year, first year starting)
2013 Pryor: -32% (2nd year, first year starting)
2011 Ponder: -32% (rookie)
2012 Cassel: -30%
Only two of those players, Goff and Allen, ever had productive seasons afterwards.
But only three of those players, Wentz, Smith, and Griffin, ever had productive seasons beforehand. Smith is 36 years old and coming off a catastrophic injury, so he’s not a great comparison. The best comparison is Griffin, who was excellent for a rookie in 2012 (17% DVOA), got injured and became average in 2013, and has barely seen the field since 2014.
Other than that, it’s hard to find adequate comparisons for Wentz. It’s unprecedented for a productive 5th year starting QB to suddenly become this bad, this fast. Outsiders wrote about this
here, so please read that article if you want more comparisons.
I’m going to stray from my unbiased, data-driven approach for a moment. One thing I’ve noticed on this sub (and the internet in general) is that while everyone realizes Wentz has played poorly this season, a lot of people don’t seem to grasp
just how poorly he’s played. A common opinion seems to be, “it’s one bad season, he can bounce back.” And while that is possible, I think it’s important to understand that this is not a routine bad season. Through 12 games, Wentz was on pace to break the all-time record for negative DYAR in a season, set by Josh Rosen. The only players who have seasons this bad are rookies, veterans who are over the hill, and random back-ups who end up starting for whatever reason. The vast majority of QBs who play this poorly are never productive starters again. Wentz’ collapse, from proven starter in his prime to this, is unprecedented.
- - - - - What will happen? - - - - -
Because Wentz' career arc is unique, it's very difficult to predict his future. It's possible Wentz rebounds and becomes a productive starter again. It's possible he is out of the league in 2023. And of course, every outcome in between those extremes is possible as well.
It's important to think about this situation probabilistically. It's fallacy to say, "Wentz will rebound." It's fallacy to say, "Wentz is finished." The truth is
we don't know, and even assigning rough probabilities to those outcomes is extremely difficult.
As such, it's also difficult to predict what the Eagles will do. As detailed in the contract section(s), Wentz' contract is tradable; a trade helps the Eagles' cap in '22, and his contract his affordable to an acquiring team.
The core question behind a possible Wentz trade is this: what is more valuable to the Eagles, the unknown chance that Wentz regains his form, or the known cap space in '22 plus any pick(s) they get in a trade?
It's up to Lurie, and/or Roseman, to answer that question.
[Daily Discussion Thread] Discuss offseason moves, rumors, etc. - 13 Jan 2021
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[Daily Discussion Thread] Game Threads + Discuss moves, rumors, etc. - 26 Jan 2021
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[Daily Discussion Thread] Game Links + Discuss moves, rumors, etc. - 19 Jan 2021
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We think the murder of George Floyd by the hands of police is abhorrent. We will continue to lift the voices of the hockey community that speak up against racism by ensuring their posts make it to
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And we
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Linked is a running catalog of all players, GMs, coaches, and organizations who have spoken up regarding the current news regarding George Floyd and the protests across the US. Return-to-Play/Playoffs FAQs and COVID-19 News
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The rise and fall of Earl Thomas: A Hall of Fame career interrupted - ESPN+ Exclusive
Earl Thomas wanted to show an old friend how far he had come.
It was 2013, and a then-24-year-old Thomas patrolled the Seattle Seahawks' Legion of Boom secondary. The franchise was just weeks from its first Super Bowl championship, and Thomas had flown his high school coach, Texas state Hall of Famer Dan Hooks, and his wife to see the Seahawks' regular-season finale against the St. Louis Rams.
After the Seahawks breezed past the Rams, Hooks found himself at Thomas' house for dinner, surrounded by luxury. He overlooked lake waters as Nina Thomas, Earl's future wife, prepared a tender steak. After dinner, Thomas walked Hooks to his garage to check out the Lamborghini Murcielago. Hooks can't remember if the car was blue or white, but he definitely remembers the scissor doors and hand-stitched leather seats, a rare glimpse into a player he always considered a bit of an introvert.
Thomas stressed he never drove it through rain or mud.
Seven years later, Hooks wonders how Thomas -- a once-proud playmaker now unemployed after a rocky season with the Baltimore Ravens and well-publicized problems off the field -- is navigating those same conditions in his life.
"I was really surprised when he got off track like that," said Hooks, who coached Thomas at Orange-Stark High School. "As time went on, the image he represented became a little different. I don't know what happened. But he's a great kid and I wish him success."
After nearly $90 million in career earnings, seven Pro Bowls and three All-Pro selections, Thomas has played deep safety on a likely route to the Hall of Fame. But a series of bizarre events on and off the field late in his career have raised questions about a legacy coming apart at the seams, including:
He ended his Seattle career by flashing a middle finger at Pete Carroll on Sept. 30, 2018, after a leg injury and an acrimonious contract dispute.
He ended his Baltimore career with a punch, with teammates fed up with his act well before he fought safety Chuck Clark during a training camp practice on Aug. 21, 2020. Two days later, the Ravens cut him for conduct detrimental to the team.
In between, a well-publicized issue with his wife, Nina -- who was arrested April 13, 2020, for allegedly pointing a gun at Thomas over cheating suspicions, according to court records -- took the focus off football.
Now, Thomas is 31 and hopeful for one last chance to anchor a secondary. All season, the free agent has worked out five to six days per week with Jeremy Hills, a former University of Texas teammate who trains many NFL athletes out of Austin.
"He feels like he has so much more to prove," Hills said. "He'll show up ready whenever he gets the call."
Blake Gideon, a former University of Texas safety who shared the defensive backfield with Thomas, backs up that claim, saying Thomas conveyed in recent text messages that he "understands the position he's in and is eager" to correct it with another chance.
Many former teammates and coaches said the news stories about Thomas, who didn't respond to multiple attempts by ESPN to reach him, don't match the person they know: a quiet but loyal individual who doesn't trust others easily but cares deeply once walls are broken, with a rare football focus that some mistake for iciness.
That last part complicated Thomas' status in multiple locker rooms. His relentless pursuit of greatness could create a gulf that several former teammates didn't want to discuss on the record out of respect for Thomas' career.
As one longtime Seahawk put it, Thomas was "a lot like Kobe" in his competitive drive. Kobe Bryant evolved and was beloved when he retired in 2016. Will Thomas get his goodbye, or has the game said it for him?
Faith and family in Orange, Texas Just about everything a young Thomas did felt ordained.
His interest in music became not just a hobby, but a vessel for an entire church body, playing the drums and organ in the Sunday service band in Orange, Texas.
A quiet boy with a matching tie and vest helped get the congregation at Sixth Street Community Church off their seats. Sixth Street, located in Orange's east side -- which the church's Facebook page calls "devil's territory" because of crime and drugs in the area -- spread joy from a brown-brick building. Thomas' grandfather, Earl V. Thomas Sr., was the founding pastor, and uncle Anthony D. Thomas has taken over.
Raymond Richard, Thomas' teammate at Orange-Stark, said the boys were in church three nights per week, plus weekends. Services were "filled with the Holy Ghost -- shouting and spirits moving," he said, and though Thomas wasn't the animated type, he took pride in helping others celebrate God through music.
"Every instrument, he could play. He was just gifted like that," Richard said. "I think he just learned how to play by being around it."
Growing up in Orange -- nicknamed "Fruit City," sitting on the border of Texas and Louisiana with a population of about 11,000 -- Thomas cut grass with his dad on weekends. Locals knew Thomas as Debbie Thomas' "miracle baby," because doctors told her, a cancer survivor, she couldn't have kids. Instead, "God blessed her with a millionaire," Richard said.
Thomas became arguably Orange's best player since former Dallas Cowboy All-Pro cornerback Kevin Smith in the '80s. Thomas was a hybrid cornerback-running back who hated to come off the field. No tests, on the field or standardized, would stop his ascension.
High school teammate Depauldrick Garrett recalls Thomas' struggling with his SAT scores to qualify for the University of Texas. Before his last attempt at qualifying, Thomas told him on site, "If I pass this score, 'I'm going to the league.'"
"His focus level was just different," Garrett said. "He wanted to make a name for Orange, and he learned the value of hard work from his family."
Early signs of brilliance as a Longhorn In 2008, Gideon earned Texas' starting-safety role alongside Thomas, who for weeks hadn't said more than two words to him. So Gideon approached Thomas after a practice and asked if he had a problem.
"He said, 'Man, to be honest, where I come from, you're a white boy with a buzz cut, so I fill in the blank on what you think about me,'" Gideon recalled Thomas saying. "I told him, 'Hey, bro, that's not me. I grew up in a different part of the state, but I see how you play and how you work hard and I love you for that. I promise you, I want to play next to you and help you get where you want to be.
"From that point, we really trusted one another."
Thomas' hometown is rich in football tradition but familiar with racial tension, which ESPN highlighted in a 2017 feature on Thomas' roots. A 1993 Texas Monthly story highlighted the segregation problems in nearby Vidor. In 2016, a Bridge City High School official issued a public apology after two of its football players posted a meme of a West Orange-Stark player who was Black and a message including the N-word.
Richard believes racism isn't discernibly worse in Orange; it's everywhere.
"You've got a group that's always trying to keep things turned up in every town," said Cornel Thompson, a longtime football coach and West Orange-Stark's athletic director. "In Orange here, the thing that pulls everything together is football."
And the field was never a problem for Thomas, who proved undeniable from the moment he stepped onto the UT campus.
He wasn't afraid to let people know, either. Lamarr Houston, a UT teammate and eight-year NFL veteran with the then-Oakland Raiders and Chicago Bears, remembers Thomas, as a redshirt freshman, declaring in the locker room that he would start the following year.
Houston brushed him off with a, "Yeah, yeah, we'll see."
"We kind of got into it -- he was really serious," Houston said. "He was letting everybody know."
Colt McCoy -- the Texas QB in 2008 -- was struck by how a shy redshirt freshman would play an organ at a local church on Sundays, sometimes missing an involuntary workout as a result, then become a dominant force during nighttime 7-on-7 workouts in the summer. Thomas begged McCoy, who had the keys to the field gates, to continue one-on-one sessions with him covering McCoy's receivers, over and over, until midnight.
"He was going to be the best and nothing was going to get in his way," said McCoy, an 11-year NFL veteran now with the New York Giants.
Thomas backed up that confidence with raw talent, with some teammates calling him "Earl the Squirrel" because of elite quickness that led to 10 interceptions in two seasons.
Will Muschamp, Texas' defensive coordinator from 2008 to 2010, remembers doing double-takes watching practice film because of the extra reps Thomas took, the ground he constantly covered.
Muschamp was cleaning his house during the early months of the pandemic when his youngest son, Whit, came across a picture he drew years back of his favorite Longhorn, Thomas. Muschamp snapped a picture and texted it to Thomas, who replied: "Coach, that's awesome."
"As productive a football player I've ever been around," said Muschamp, a head coach at Florida and South Carolina over the past decade.
Seattle was a perfect fit -- until suddenly it wasn't Man, he had a different burst.
That was the prevailing theme from Seattle coaches after the first practices with Thomas, a first-round pick in 2010. Coaches measured safety speed by how one tracked the "red lines" -- numbers to numbers -- and no one owned the red lines like Thomas did.
New coach Pete Carroll needed a catalyst.
"We started constructing a defense around a middle-field safety, and that's what he was," said Rocky Seto, a longtime Seattle defensive assistant who left the profession a few years ago for Christian ministry. "He had a knack for getting the ball, and his range was phenomenal."
Seattle's personnel staff followed the Thomas pick with a pair of fifth-round selections -- hard-hitting safety Kam Chancellor (2010) and lanky corner Richard Sherman (2011) -- for a defensive foundation to fuel championship runs
Thomas was different in every way, eschewing the role of vocal leader for a get-like-me mentality that some teammates couldn't reach. One Seattle coach recalled Thomas chiding teammates for doing an extra film session because he assumed everyone already did that like him.
The work ethic reached maniacal levels. Multiple people interviewed for this story remember Thomas leaving his daughter's birthday party early to go watch film in another room. Former Seahawks corner DeShawn Shead was there for that moment. He was also there when Thomas angrily confronted defensive linemen for not carrying out assignments with intensity during a walk-through.
Thomas would balance contentious moments with invites for teammates to watch "Thursday Night Football" and play video games at his house.
"We know each other's family -- wives, kids, and on the field, we were there for each other," Shead said of Seattle's secondary.
Thomas' hero was Ed Reed, and Thomas wanted to "surpass Reed and beat him by a mile" in career accomplishments, said Kris Richard, Seattle's former defensive backs coach and defensive coordinator.
Thomas hasn't quite matched Reed's 64 interceptions, but Thomas' 30 is tops among safeties this past decade, with Sherman leading the way among active players, with 35. Chancellor was a generational hitter, and Sherman could erase the top receiver, but Thomas' versatility scared opposing coaches. His freelance moves were calculated, almost always based on film tips. Richard recalls a moment when a young Thomas sniffed out a toss play for Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles, put his foot in the ground and "leveled him out of bounds."
Richard had to manage a position room with three greats, which he admits meant "sparks would fly" with emotion on occasion.
One team source said Thomas had multiple heated confrontations with coaches, though Richard said he doesn't recall that, only a player of few words but much action.
"He wanted to be the greatest safety to ever play," Richard said. "For my entirety coaching him, he was always the glaring example of what to do and how to practice, the epitome of excellence."
That football immersion made him unapproachable at times. If someone isn't helping Thomas connect on the field, a team source said, then "he's an island."
But Seattle was the ideal place for a "keeps to himself" guy such as Thomas, Seto said. Seattle is unapologetically messy when it comes to players; coaches get to know them as people, business be damned, and if that muddles contract negotiations, at least players can't say the team doesn't care. Carroll is skilled at coalescing an amalgam of personalities and embracing differences. Seto had multiple talks with Thomas about the Bible and his relationship with Jesus Christ.
"He came in as a 19-year-old guy, almost out of high school, and we saw him in that way, nurtured him," Seto said. "If there were any quirks, we learned to appreciate that part of him. We all kind of came up together."
By 2018, Thomas was 29 and found himself on that island without two trusted anchors. Chancellor retired because of neck injuries, and Sherman was released after tearing his Achilles tendon. Both played roles in corralling Thomas when he appeared distant or indifferent.
Without them, Thomas appeared increasingly irritated to be in Seattle. Public demands for an extension or a trade before the 2018 season were unsuccessful, and as trainers carted Thomas off the field in Arizona in Week 4 -- with his lower left leg fractured, and his middle finger pointed to the Glendale sky -- one Seahawks source described the moment as "numbing," a finality to a relationship that felt over much earlier. People from Orange considered the gesture uncharacteristic of the church-organ-playing football player they knew.
Sherman declined to comment for this story through the 49ers, adding that he would talk only if Thomas talks; efforts to reach Chancellor were unsuccessful. The Seahawks did not make Carroll and general manager John Schneider available for this story.
"They were pillars who knew they could lean on each other," said Richard of Thomas and the Legion of Boom. "When you remove those pillars from his life, that affects you."
From Orange, Hooks sensed Thomas' desire to return home fueled unhappiness in Seattle.
"He wanted to go to Dallas, and when that didn't happen, maybe that changed things for him," Hooks said.
Why it didn't work with the Ravens The Baltimore Ravens are among the league's best at finding bargain contracts and developing draft picks into tough-minded players, which only fueled curiosity when then-new general manager Eric DeCosta gave Thomas a four-year, $55 million contract with $32 million in guarantees in March 2019.
Thomas, two months from age 30 at the time, was believed to have a one-year deal on the table from Kansas City, but his market wasn't exactly booming. The Ravens had moved on from Eric Weddle and, without a viable replacement in the system, figured Thomas' pedigree and range could strengthen the secondary against the Odell Beckhams of the AFC North.
The signing felt rushed -- and proved unsettling nearly as fast.
Within the first month of game action, Thomas initiated a heated argument with Brandon Williams over the defensive tackle's availability against the Cleveland Browns. Thomas' unreliability became a broader issue, as ESPN's Jamison Hensley reported, once he didn't show up for meetings following the bye after a Week 7 matchup with the Seahawks.
According to a report in The Athletic, Thomas took a private jet to Las Vegas straight from the game in Seattle instead of returning to Baltimore with the Ravens. Thomas was fined repeatedly for his indifference to game prep.
"It's one of the all-time mysteries why he didn't work in here, because it seemed on paper like he'd be the perfect Raven," said a team source. "This is a good locker room, but it didn't fit from the beginning."
Peak Thomas no longer showed on the game film from the 2019 season, but he still produced 47 tackles, two sacks, a forced fumble and two interceptions.
The team's handling of the fight with Clark in 2020 showed just how many strikes Thomas had used up. Thomas was gone within two days of punching Clark during a Friday training camp practice over a blown coverage, with the team essentially paying out $22 million for one season of work.
Coach John Harbaugh consulted prominent Ravens, who believed it was time to cut ties. After Thomas' release, the team declined to provide specifics publicly and privately, eager to move on despite owing him $10 million in guarantees in 2021, which is currently being sorted out by an NFLPA grievance.
Without making excuses for Thomas, several former Seahawks acknowledge that leaving Seattle's locker room is an adjustment for veterans. Several former and current Seahawks brought this up when discussing Thomas' problems. It's not that players can't be successful elsewhere -- Sherman became an All-Pro with San Francisco -- it's that they can take the culture for granted.
Outside linebacker Bruce Irvin has been vocal about this. He left Seattle in 2016 free agency and, after 30 sacks in five seasons elsewhere, he returned to the Seahawks because he missed the nuances -- how the team traveled, practiced and took care of older players.
"Seattle has energy, a positive environment, and they tailor a lot of their defense and offense to the players," Shead said. "It can be very different compared to the rest of the league. For some, when you got to other teams, it just gets to them."
Thomas' football career started to spiral as his personal life suffered in the public eye.
The Ravens were shocked by the April 13 incident in Austin, which resulted in Nina Thomas' arrest for first-degree felony burglary of a residence with intent to commit aggravated assault with a deadly weapon.
The details alleged in Travis County magistrate court records were jarring:
After finding Earl Thomas and his brother, Seth, in separate bedrooms of a rental home with separate women, Nina placed Earl's 9mm Beretta less than a foot away from her husband's head, with the safety disengaged and her finger on the trigger, all of which an officer viewed on cellphone video footage. Nina, accompanied by two women to help confront Thomas, told police she intended to scare Thomas but was unaware of a round in the chamber. Earl, who was not arrested, tussled for the gun, but police showed up at 3:41 a.m. with Nina allegedly chasing Earl with a knife. Thomas posted a since-deleted video urging people to pray instead of gossip, as "stuff like this happens."
Jonathan Goins, Nina's lawyer, told ESPN that Nina and Earl -- high school sweethearts who married in 2016 and have three children -- are reconciling.
"They are working on their marriage and doing what they have to do to make sure their three children are growing up in the best environment possible," Goins said.
Goins said he is expecting a dismissal of the case, which is currently being handled by the district attorney's office. He is working closely with Carl A. Moore, Earl Thomas' attorney, and Thomas has fully cooperated in the process.
Will Thomas get another chance? As a concerned friend, Gideon has sent encouraging texts to Thomas in recent months. He figured Thomas felt like the world was coming down on him, so he simply let him know he loved him. They had pleasant exchanges that Gideon would prefer to keep private.
"A lot of people were surprised with the issues that came to light because that was never him," Gideon said. "I don't see that as not having a great relationship with teammates in the locker room. The stuff back in Austin with his brother, that wasn't him."
According to Hills, his former teammate and trainer, Thomas has immersed himself in routine, working on his personal life and football craft without any guarantees of his career resuming.
Most days, Thomas wakes up early, jogs a mile to get loose, goes through a traditional weightlifting session (he needs to squat with the barbell across the back -- no body-weight sessions here), then it's on to conditioning and two-man offensive work, Hills said.
Hills classifies Thomas as being in "damn good shape," with speed of the NFL game the only thing they can't truly replicate in workouts. But when Hills can't find Thomas, he usually knows why.
"For the first time in a while, he has more time to be a dad," Hills said. "If he's not with me, he's probably in a bouncy house somewhere."
Family photos comprise much of Thomas' social media fare.
Thomas also has several posts that seem to promote the grand opening of Area 29 in Houston, which, according to the company's Instagram page, is the "hottest new international strip club featuring #1 dancers." Twenty-nine is Thomas' famous jersey number. ESPN left a message for a club official for comment on Thomas' involvement.
The Houston Texans appeared ready to sign Thomas in late September but backed away over concerns from the locker room, according to reporting by CBS Sports.
The Dallas Cowboys desperately needed secondary help yet didn't aggressively pursue Thomas. League sources said they believe the Cowboys once entertained signing Thomas for the league minimum, but those discussions never went very far.
Football can be cruel to aging veterans hoping to gracefully bow out. For every John Elway or Peyton Manning, there are dozens forced into retirement due to declining play.
But that's tough for Thomas, McCoy said, because of what he still can give.
"It's hard for anybody when someone tells you you can't play anymore -- it's even harder if you think you still can," McCoy said. "Hard thing to move on from. With Earl, I don't think that's what's going on. He can still play."
Richard also believes Thomas has "something left in the tank," because instincts and preparation will guide him.
Either way, a legacy awaits him in Orange, where for years he conducted a massive youth football camp. Providing a free camp to 1,000-plus kids was liberating for Thomas, who had to shake his hesitancy to speak publicly as a front-facing figure.
Thomas brought NFL peers to town and treated Orange "like Robin Hood" when it came to generosity for kids and family friends, said Derrick Scott, a former Texas strength coach who helps run the camp, which COVID-19 derailed in 2020.
"I see all this as Earl Thomas growing into the man he's going to be. I really believe he'll prevail," Scott said. "I believe his heart is in the right place. Things happen in life. I've seen his resiliency."
If Thomas doesn't get another NFL down, he has disciples to carry on his tradition -- and fiercely protect his legacy.
Any time Tennessee Titans safety Kenny Vaccaro breaks on a pass, he hopes his technique and angle to the ball would make Thomas proud.
The former UT teammate and friend can't be told any differently: Thomas revolutionized the free safety position because of his sideline-to-sideline range and anticipation.
That's why Thomas' current predicament deeply hurts him.
"Hall of Fame players like him should be able to go out on their own terms," Vaccaro said.
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best nfl picks against the spread week 4 2020 video
NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS) for Week 4 By Kevin McGuire , 10/3/20, 12:00 PM EDT Carson Wentz and the winless Eagles are heavy road underdogs against the beat-up 49ers Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season is here. Get ready for it with this preview, which includes the full schedule, kickoff start times, TV and live stream viewing info, opening betting odds, pro Get the latest NFL Super Bowl picks from CBS Sports. Experts weigh in with analysis and provide premium picks for upcoming NFL games. 2020 NFL Week 4 picks against the spread. msn back to msn home sports. powered by Microsoft News. quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick had the best athlete quote I've ever heard: See our best bets against the spread for Week 4 (October 4) in the 2020 NFL season, as well as ATS picks for each game on the schedule. Week 4 NFL picks, 2020 best bets from a legendary expert: This three-way parlay would pay 6-1 Hank Goldberg just revealed his top NFL parlay for Week 4. As the 2020 NFL Playoffs roll on, these are your best picks against the spread for the Divisional Round. The Wild Card Round to kick off the 2020 NFL Playoffs had everything. There were four one-score games (technically), three straight-up road wins, two overtime games, one potential end to a dynasty and a few questionable calls for good measure. N.F.L. Week 4 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are building momentum and the Bears hope to continue an improbable start. Two games — Chiefs-Patriots and Get our top NFL picks for every game of the 2020/21 season including our NFL picks against the spread. We dive into the data, betting trends, team news, and a lot more to bring you the best expert NFL picks each week. Check out our NFL predictions and NFL best bets pages for our top plays on today’s NFL games. Pickwatch tracks NFL expert picks and millions of fan picks for free to tell you who the most accurate handicappers in 2020 are at ESPN, CBS, FOX and many more are, straight up and against the spread.
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