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2021 Mock Draft 1.0

  1. Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence
The Jags have a chance at a really bright future. Lawrence is one of the best prospects of all time. Don’t overthink this pick.
  1. Jets: Justin Fields
I like Sam Darnold and I think he can be a quality QB in this league, however, when a new coach comes in you let him pick his guy and Fields has tremendous talent.
  1. Dolphins: Penei Sewell
Tua wasn’t great, and I think the Dolphins take a swing at Deshaun Watson. However if no trade transpires it would make sense to bolster the line and add a player who many are calling a generational talent.
  1. Atlanta Falcons: Zach Wilson
The Falcons have a lot of pieces, however this isn’t a championship winning roster. Wilson is electric and he would do well to develop for a year before taking Matt Ryan’s job.
  1. Cincinnati Bengals: Jamar Chase
While DeVonta Smith is a fantastic player, Chase is still the top WR in this class. Chase/Higgins/Boyd could be an elite trio for the Bengals. It’s also a strong draft for tackles so I see them pairing someone with Jonah Williams (who had a strong year) with their 2nd round pick.
  1. Philadelphia Eagles: Devonta Smith
The Eagles need a receiver, Wentz looks to be out and giving Jalen Hurts weapons for next year is a priority.
  1. Detroit Lions: Jaylen Waddle
The definition of a deep threat, Waddle has elite speed and can be a Tyreek Hill type of player for the Lions who will need to replace Kenny Golladay.
  1. Carolina Panthers: Trey Lance
I wish we had seen Lance build off his fantastic 2019 season where he didn’t throw a pick. Lance can throw the football all over the field and has a high level understanding of the game. Panthers can let him develop with Bridgewater starting next season.
  1. Denver Broncos: Micah Parsons
The Broncos go BPA at this point adding a blue chip talent to their defense. Parsons has everything he needs to be an elite linebacker in the NFL.
  1. Dallas Cowboys: Caleb Farley
Farley asserted himself as the best corner in this class. The Cowboys defense was awful and they desperately need help at CB.
  1. New York Giants: Gregory Rousseau
The best edge defender in this class, pairing Rousseau with Leonard Williams (who I believe will be re-signed creates a dynamic pass rushing duo.
  1. San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Surtain
This is an easy pick, with several notable fee agents the niners bolster their CB room. I don’t love Surtain,but he is a talented player at a position of need.
  1. LA Chargers: Rashawn Slater
Slater is a talented player and the second best tackle in this class. Look for the Chargers to address the line after Herbert was sacked 32 times in 2020.
  1. Minnesota Vikings: Christian Darrisaw
Another tackle off the board for a Vikings teak that needs help in the trenches. I like Wyatt Davis for the Vikings but OT is more important than IOL.
  1. New England Patriots: Mac Jones
New England needs to address the quarterback situation, Mac is talented and has no major flaws in his game, the epitome of a game manager.
  1. Arizona Cardinals: Kyle Pitts
The Cardinals get lucky with Pitts falling, he’s the BPA available and pairing him with Deandre Hopkins will offer some serious mismatches.
  1. Las Vegas Raiders: Kwity Paye
The Raiders need help all over their D-line, Paye is the top player available at a position of need. I like Paye, and I don’t think he slips this far but I wasn’t sure where to mock him.
  1. Miami Dolphins: Rashod Bateman
After going with Sewell at 3, the Dolphins add the best receiver on the board to their offense. Look for this team to take huge strides in 2021.
  1. Washington Football Team: Samuel Cosmi
This is a really strong tackle class which helps the Football Team who have a need at the position. Washington needs to figure out quarterback because the rest of the offense is falling into place.
  1. Chicago Bears: Wyatt Davis
David Montgomery has shown he’s the RB of the future in Chicago. The interior offensive line did not open up holes for him. Davis goes a long way towards solving the problem.
  1. Indianapolis Colts: Jaycee Horn
The Colts are a QB away from contending. They add another piece to their already strong defense and address their quarterback situation through free agency or trade.
  1. Tennessee Titans: Zaven Collins
The Titans have a strong offense, however they desperately need to improve their pass rush. Collins is massive and can play all over the field.
  1. New York Jets: Jayson Oweh
Oweh is an absurd physical specimen. He comes in and immediately bolsters the pass rush and run defense for the Jets.
  1. Pittsburgh Steelers: Teven Jenkins
Jenkins was a man among boys in college, the Steelers were an excellent team that was hindered by their terrible rushing offense. Adding a physical tackle and a RB later in the draft works to solve that problem.
  1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Alijah Vera-Tucker
The Jaguars have to invest in their offensive line. Tucker can play both tackle and guard, and has the athleticism to block downfield.
  1. Cleveland Browns: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
JOK is an incredible player and athlete who will step in and become the Browns “Lamar stopper”.
  1. Baltimore Raven: Kadarius Toney
The Ravens must improve their passing attack. They’ve lost in the playoffs in two consecutive years because of their reliance on running the ball. Toney is an explosive YAC monster who compliments Marquise Brown very well.
  1. New Orleans Saints: Nick Bolton
Bolton is a tackling machine and leader at MLB. His leadership and ability to make big plays helps the Saints improve their already strong defense.
  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Christian Barmore
The Bucs have a lot of free agents in 2021, especially on defense. Barmore was exceptional in the CFB championship and is the best defensive tackle in the country.
  1. Buffalo Bills: Azeri Ojulari
The Bills need to fix their pass rush, no player registered more than 5 sacks in 2020. Ojulari is a phenomenal DE and the best speed rusher in the class.
  1. Green Bay Packers: Asante Samuel Jr
Samuel is a talented corner who allowed a 46.2 passer rating this year. Him an Jaire Alexander would be a shutdown duo for years to come.
  1. Kansas City Chiefs: Rondale Moore
With Sammy Watkins assumedly out, the 5’9 Moore steps in as a tackle breaking machine. With Hill, Kelce, and Moore, the Chiefs don’t miss a step.
submitted by GardnerDaddyMinshew to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]

DD - Funko Toys

2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here

Funko is a good company with solid performance that is still trading at a reasonable price. Check out my DD below:

Funko (FNKO)
Share Price (1/28/21) : $11.97
Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86
Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14%
Next Earnings Release: March 2021
Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties.
Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021:
· Increasing search traffic for Funko products
· Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability
· Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID
· People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out
· Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021
· Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity
· Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive
FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020
“Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019)
Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020
After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels
FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN
Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4
· B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year.
· Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020
· The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020
“We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti
Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes.
Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company
· Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020)
· Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018)
· As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well
Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales
· Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory.
· Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment.
Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each
· According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti.
· With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15
PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID
Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home.
· “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay
· “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD
Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending
· According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.”
Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays
· Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.”
Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong
· Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko
> Overall comparable sales were up 17.2%
> Comparable digital sales were up over 100%
> Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2%
> Store traffic was up 4.3%
> Average ticket size was up 12.3%
· GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales
> Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020
> Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020
· According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic
> A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019)
> The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years.
MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT
The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling
· “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020
· The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019
> The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel
> Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending
· Concert spending is down dramatically
> Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020
> About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3)
· Movie theater attendance is down substantially
> AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020
> Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue
> Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue
> Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy
· Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending
> Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy
> Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000
> CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy
> Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats
> Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel.
These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage
The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being
Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity
· The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion
· More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks
MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG
Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future
· The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019
· Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020
· The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year.
Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond
· Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc.
· Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom
· Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia
· Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious
· TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons
· Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE
· Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc.
Retail exclusives can grow the potential universe of licenses and increase retailer buy-in
· For example: A retailer like GameStop could lobby Funko to make a GameStop exclusive of the WallStreetBets Kid like this person suggested here. (The exclusive Pop! would be made into a limited edition and sold only to GameStop to sell at their stores)
COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY
· Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends.
· Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands.
· Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream.
ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK
Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12).
· Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries.
Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM)
· Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales)
· Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales)
· Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales)
Key Financial Trends For Funko
· Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31
> Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million
> Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94%
> Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID
> Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49%
> Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.)
· Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce
TL;DR
After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum.
Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock.
Positions: Long Shares & Calls
Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier.
Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates.
Previous DD: Herman Miller
submitted by LavenderAutist to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Funko (FNKO) - Stop Toying Around

Hi all,
To celebrate the return of Undervalued to the Reddit community, I decided to put together a quick DD and post it on a stock that I have had my eye on for a little while. It's still a "work-in-progress" and I may potentially update it later on Reddit with more information or detail if I have time at some point in the future.
If you have any opinions, thoughts, or additional information, please share it. Positive. Negative. Neutral. All information is helpful and informative to the community. (I thought the feedback received from my first DD posted to this sub was quite helpful and I look forward to what you have to say.)
Thank you to u/BuyLowSellNever for turning the sub back on; allowing us to share and discuss ideas with the broader community in a thoughtful and respectful manner. Best wishes. - LA

Funko (FNKO)
Share Price (1/28/21) : $11.97
Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86
Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14%
Next Earnings Release: March 2021
Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties.
Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021:
· Increasing search traffic for Funko products
· Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability
· Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID
· People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out
· Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021
· Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity
· Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive
FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020
“Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019)
Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020
After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels
FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN
Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4
· B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year.
· Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020
· The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020
“We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti
Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes.
Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company
· Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020)
· Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018)
· As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well
Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales
· Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory.
· Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment.
Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each
· According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti.
· With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15
PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID
Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home.
· “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay
· “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD
Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending
· According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.”
Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays
· Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.”
Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong
· Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko
> Overall comparable sales were up 17.2%
> Comparable digital sales were up over 100%
> Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2%
> Store traffic was up 4.3%
> Average ticket size was up 12.3%
· GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales
> Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020
> Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020
· According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic
> A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019)
> The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years.
MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT
The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling
· “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020
· The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019
> The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel
> Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending
· Concert spending is down dramatically
> Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020
> About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3)
· Movie theater attendance is down substantially
> AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020
> Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue
> Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue
> Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy
· Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending
> Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy
> Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000
> CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy
> Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats
> Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel.
These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage
The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being
Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity
· The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion
· More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks
MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG
Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future
· The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019
· Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020
· The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year.
Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond
· Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc.
· Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom
· Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia
· Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious
· TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons
· Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE
· Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc.
COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY
· Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends.
· Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands.
· Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream.
ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK
Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12).
· Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries.
Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM)
· Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales)
· Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales)
· Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales)
Key Financial Trends For Funko
· Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31
> Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million
> Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94%
> Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID
> Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49%
> Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.)
· Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce
TL;DR
After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum.
Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock.
Positions: Long Shares & Calls
Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier.
Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates.

2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here

submitted by LavenderAutist to Undervalued [link] [comments]

DD - Funko Toys (+$15 per share / +$600m Market Cap)

2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here

Funko is a good company with solid performance that is still trading at a reasonable price.
Check out my DD below:
Funko (FNKO)
Share Price (02/01/21) : $12.90
Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86
Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14%
Next Earnings Release: March 2021
Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties.
Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021:
· Increasing search traffic for Funko products
· Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability
· Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID
· People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out
· Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021
· Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity
· Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive
FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020
“Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019)
Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020
After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels
FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN
Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4
· B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year.
· Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020
· The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020
“We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti
Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes.
Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company
· Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020)
· Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018)
· As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well
Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales
· Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory.
· Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment.
Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each
· According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti.
· With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15
PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID
Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home.
· “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay
· “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD
Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending
· According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.”
Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays
· Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.”
Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong
· Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko
> Overall comparable sales were up 17.2%
> Comparable digital sales were up over 100%
> Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2%
> Store traffic was up 4.3%
> Average ticket size was up 12.3%
· GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales
> Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020
> Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020
· According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic
> A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019)
> The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years.
MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT
The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling
· “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020
· The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019
> The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel
> Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending
· Concert spending is down dramatically
> Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020
> About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3)
· Movie theater attendance is down substantially
> AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020
> Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue
> Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue
> Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy
· Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending
> Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy
> Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000
> CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy
> Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats
> Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel.
These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage
The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being
Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity
· The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion
· More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks
MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG
Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future
· The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019
· Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020
· The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year.
Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond
· Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc.
· Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom
· Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia
· Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious
· TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons
· Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE
· Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc.
Retail exclusives can grow the potential universe of licenses and increase retailer buy-in
· For example: A retailer like GameStop could lobby Funko to make a GameStop exclusive of the WallStreetBets Kid like this person suggested here. (The exclusive Pop! would be made into a limited edition and sold only to GameStop to sell at their stores)
COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY
· Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends.
· Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands.
· Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream.
ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK
Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12).
· Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries.
Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM)
· Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales)
· Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales)
· Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales)
Key Financial Trends For Funko
· Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31
> Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million
> Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94%
> Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID
> Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49%
> Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.)
· Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce
TL;DR
After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum.
Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock.
Positions: Long Shares & Calls
Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier.
Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates.
Previous DD: Herman Miller
submitted by LavenderAutist to stocks [link] [comments]

My Mock Draft 2.0 (Jets trade for Watson and New England trades for Matt Stafford)

1st Round
1. Jacksonville - Trevor Lawrence (QB)
The clear choice
2. Houston Texans (Sam Darnold, 1.02, Giant’s 2021 5th and the Seahawk’s 2022 1st pick for Deshaun Watson) – Zach Wilson (QB)
The Texans acquire future draft capital and enter a rebuild. They have a top pick this draft, and 2 first next year – enough to make a new team and start to erase the errors of BoB. The Jets get their QB of the future. The Texans get Darnold and see if he can produce outside of a Gase offense, but select Zach Wilson as the QB of the future. This will give the Texans a chance to let Wilson get acclimated to the NFL before being thrown into the fire. The Texans also likely decline Darnold’s 5th year option, because he will either be irrelevant by then, or will be good enough to sign to another team for significant money and give a comp pick.
The Jets get a franchise QB while still having a first this year and next year, their future is immediately very bright. The Texans might demand more compensation, but they have a new GM and if Deshaun refuses to play, they may have to settle for a ‘mere’ 2 1st round picks.
3. Miami – Penei Sewell (LT)
A franchise left tackle. While Miami may not need him as much as Cincinnati does, their line isn’t nearly stellar enough to pass on his talent.
4. Detroit (from Atlanta for 1.07 and 2.41 for 1.04) – Justin Fields (QB)
Detroit trades up to get Stafford’s replacement. Atlanta gives Matt Ryan more time.
5. Cincinnati – Micah Parsons (LB)
Parsons has sideline to sideline speed and should be a Pro Bowler quickly at a Cinci position of need. The Bengals OLine has been poor, but it needs more than just 1st round picks being thrown at it. The Bengals can address it later in the draft.
6. Philadelphia – Ja’Marr Chase (WR)
Although it is unclear who Philly’s QB will be, who ever it is will need to have more weapons available to them. Ja’Marr Chase is the best player available here, and fits Philly’s needs. While Zach Wilson and Trey Lance are still available, the Eagles give Wentz and Hurts another go at things with a better supporting cast and different HC before they completely move on.
7. Atlanta – Kwity Paye (DE)
Atlanta’s weakest position group might be their EDGEs, and despite trading back they still get the best one off the board. I personally like Rousseau better tho...
8. Carolina - Trey Lance (QB)
Carolina gets a QB of the future, who will be able to take reps behind their current QB of Teddy Bridgewater while he quickly grows a starter. Lance’s biggest flaw as a prospect is his inexperience with an NFL offense. NDSU’s offense is designed runs against slower LBs and deep balls to open receivers. Lance’s ability to dominate in the FCS is clear, but he needs to learn when to throw a check down before he will be ready for the NFL, and sitting behind Teddy will let him do that. Lance’s athleticism as a runner and capability as a thrower make him a more appealing pick to the Panthers here.
9. Denver – Caleb Farley (CB)
Farley has asserted himself as the best CB in the draft. He can be another piece in a Fangio defense that becomes one of the best in the league. They only need their offensive weapons to play to their potential…
10. Dallas – Patrick Surtain II (CB)
The Cowboys have holes to fix on their much maligned defense from last year, in addition to their offensive line issues. However, the Dallas offense looked acceptable when they had Dak, while their defense did not. They take the next off the board, and hope the Dak can return to form next year.
11. NY Giants – Jaylen Waddle (WR)
The Giants need an elite receiving option and get a number one receiving option. He has the route running skills and ball skills to play on the outside, and the size to be durable. When both Waddle and Smith where heathy at Bama, Waddle actually had more production.
12. San Francisco – Jaycee Horn (CB)
SF will likely be losing Richard Sherman, and Jaycee Horn has all the skills necessary to be a shutdown corner, although he may have some hiccups on the way.
13. LA Chargers – Rashawn Slater (OL)
The Chargers clearly need to improve all over their offensive line, as all 3 positions were rated in the bottom 2 by PFF. Slater has the versatility to move all around the offensive line, and the ability to match. His demonstrated ability against NFL prospects such as Chase Young in college is very enticing and leads the Chargers to select him above fellow prospect Christian Darrisaw
14. Minnesota – Gregory Rousseau (EDGE)
Minnesota’s defensive line struggled without Danielle Hunter. With Rousseau and Hunter back, the DLine may actually become a strong suit.
15. Lions (trade from New England for Matthew Stafford) – DeVonta Smith (WR)
The Lions, in their trade for Stafford, get the last of the big 3 stud receivers. New England effectively drafts Matt Stafford with their first round pick, and hopes to fill the smaller holes on offense and defense in the later
16. Arizona – Kyle Pitts (TE)
The Cardinals get a second option for Kyler to throw to. Pitts is a great fit for the Cardinals because they run 12 personnel the 3rd most often in the NFL and 10 Personnel the most in the NFL, but don’t have a passing option like Pitts on their roster (not like there are many options like Pitts on any roster). Pitts falls to the Cardinals and helps Klif put together a lightning fast scoring machine.
17. Indianapolis (trade from Las Vegas 1.17 for 1.21 and 4.118) – Christian Darrisaw (OT)
Indy selects their next franchise left tackle to compliment Quinton Nelson after the retirement of Anthony Castonzo.
18. Miami – Azeez Ojulari (EDGE)
Ojulari is a good DE prospect who gets to the QB at a very efficient rate. The Dolphins have already invested in their secondary, but you need a pass rush too the get the benefit of it.
19. Washington – Alijah Vera-Tucker (OT)
The Football Team would like to take a QB here, but Mac Jones and Trask are major reaches. Honestly I don’t really know what Washington takes here, but you can never have enough O Line depth. They take Alijah Vera-Tucker, who can play at tackle and guard, and hope that Jones or Trask is available in the 2nd.
  1. Chicago - Sam Cosmi (OT)
Chicago looks to improve their offensive line and selects the 6-7 tackle out of Texas. He has the room to fill out and become an absolute bruiser in both the run and pass game.
21. Las Vegas(trade from Indianapolis 1.17 for 1.21 and 4.118) – Jayson Oweh (EDGE)
The Raiders need help on their OLine. Oweh is yet NFL ready, but he is an absurd prospect. Nonetheless, his wild build will allow the DC in Vegas to get creative. I realize this is a reach, but I think he is the perfect type of freak athlete Gruden and the Raiders would select.
22. Tennessee – Carlos Besham Jr. (EDGE)
The Titans defense needs to be better getting after the passer. Besham has a very high motor to get after the QB, and is the type of player that can really bolster a defense in my opinion.
23. NY Jets via SEA – Wyatt Davis (OG)
The Jets have their QB of the future in Deshaun Watson. Wyatt Davis, along with Mekhi Becton and their other signings will make their offensive line a force as well, in both the pass and running game. An elite QB + elite OLine play should get the Jets most of the way to a great offense, but the Jets will quickly need to get weapons for the run game and the pass game too
24. Pittsburgh – Creed Humphry (C)
Creed Humphry becomes the replacement for longtime center Maurkice Pouncey. While Pouncey has not retired yet (and this assumes he will), the Steelers have clearly been affected by subpar OLine play. The offense never had a run game and relies on quick passes, which failed them down the stretch. The solution is more than just drafting a new HB, it requires an overhaul of the offensive line. Humphry is the first center of the board.
25. Jacksonville via LAR – Christian Barmore (DT)
Having selected Trevor Lawrence, Urban Meyer knows the next step to winning is domination in the trenches. Barmore proved his ability to get to the QB in the National Championship against some of the same Buckeyes that Urban himself recruited. Although Barmore still has questions about his game, namely his ability to help in the run game, his ability to get to the QB is rare and gets him picked in the first round.
26. Cleveland – Zavon Collins (LB/EDGE)
Collins is an athletic freak and his college tape is something else. The Browns are enthused to get a linebacker who can both cover and rush the passer to anchor a poor defense. The Browns will also need to address the DE position because of the Achilles injury to Olivier Vernon. Almost certainly this will be a job for Free Agency, because I don’t see any EDGEs left that will be able to immediately produce, and the Browns are in their championship window with cap money to spend. Look for them to be in play for Leonard Williams or Trey Hendrickson (or whatever other DEs can be found in free agency or trade).
27. Baltimore – Rashod Bateman (WR)
Lamar Jackson gets a large target to throw to, and the offense can finally be the balanced threat that they clearly would like to be.
28. New Orleans – Rodarius Williams (CB)
NO defense is already very formidable, they take a good coverage CB to play across Lattimore.
29. Tampa Bay – Shaun Wade (CB)
Wade played out of position most of the year, but is a very talented nickel corner who can play anywhere in the secondary, as well as help out the run defense. With the return of Vita Vea, and the drafting of Shaun Wade, it becomes very difficult to run against the Bucs, and the Bucs play in shootouts that Bruce Arians loves to win.
30. Buffalo – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB)
Buffalo tries to fill a hole in their defense with BPA Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah out of Notre Dame.
31. Green Bay – Najee Harris (HB)
Green Bay is likely losing Aaron Jones. How do they respond? By possibly upgrading at the position. Najee Harris is a beast at breaking tackles, and can catch balls like a wide receiver, making him dangerous with
32. Kansas City – Rashad Weaver (EDGE)
Kansas City’s DEs are the worst graded DEs in the NFL. Rashad Weaver has the talent to have gone earlier, but his battles with injury make his stock volatile. With that being said, he has the talent to make this group improve, as the Chiefs hope Frank Clark plays like the player he was Seattle.
Second Round
33. Jacksonville – Alex Leatherwood (OT)
34. NY Jets – Rondale Moore (WR)
The Jets’ offense adds Deshaun Watson, Rondale Moore, and Wyatt Davis. Their defense will need work, but the NFL runs through offense, and this should be the best offense New York has seen in awhile, and is set for the long haul.
35. Atlanta – Paulson Adebo (CB)
I love Adebo as a prospect, and feel he would go much higher if didn’t opt out and played his senior year. The Falcons get a high end athlete, though he has to improve his coverage to avoid getting burned.
36. Miami via HOU – Joseph Ossai (LB)
Joseph Ossai is probably the best defensive player on the board, and the Dolphins continue to add talent.
37. Philadelphia – Tyson Campbell (CB)
38. Cincinnati – Jalen Mayfield (OT)
Mayfield likely slots into the RT position, which is what he played in college. The AFC North is deadly for tackles, especially RT, having a slate of Myles Garrett, TJ Watt, and Matt Judon. Mayfield has his faults, but he was able to handle Chase Young in college.
39. Carolina – Jevon Holland (S)
40. Denver - Landon Dickerson (C)
41. Atlanta – Travis Ettienne (HB)
42. NY Giants – Trevon Moehrig (S)
43. San Francisco – Mac Jones (QB)
44. Dallas – Dylan Moses (LB)
45. Jacksonville via Minnesota – Patrick Jones (EDGE)
46. New England – Terrace Marshall Jr. (WR)
47. LA Chargers – Walker Little (OT)
48. Las Vegas – Marvin Wilson (DT)
49. Arizona – Joe Tyron (LB/EDGE)
50. Miami – Baron Browning (LB)
51. Washington – Kyle Trask (QB)
52. Chicago – Asante Samuel Jr. (CB)
53. Tennessee – Jaelan Phillips (EDGE)
Tennessee goes for 2 EDGEs, but pass rush seemed to be a major issue, and you can never enough DLine players.
54. Indianapolis – Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR)
55. Pittsburgh – Monty Rice (ILB)
Steelers were killed by injuries at MLB, Rice will be able to help there while providing help in pass rush on occasion.
56. Seattle – Ronnie Perkins (EDGE)
57. LA Rams – Nick Bolton (LB)
58. Tampa Bay – Daviyon Nixon (DT)
59. Baltimore – Josh Myers (C)
60. Cleveland - Dayo Odeyingbo (EDGE)
61. New Orleans – Jay Tufele (NT)
62. Buffalo – Eric Stokes (CB)
63. Green Bay – Pete Werner (LB)
64. Kansas City – Jordan Smith (LB)

edited: a typo with Ettienne and gave Jacksonville Min's pick from a trade
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Funko (FNKO) - This Is The Way

2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here

Hi everyone.
Funko is a great stock that I believe will do well this year. Internet search traffic for Funko has been increasing and is at all-time highs over the last couple of months. The company is selling more of their toys directly to customers through their e-commerce shop (which allows them to capture higher retail revenues than wholesale revenues). And demand for collectibles and toys continues to be strong.
Here is a DD I wrote on the company below. I would love to get your thoughts.

Funko (FNKO)
Share Price (1/28/21) : $11.97
Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86
Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14%
Next Earnings Release: March 2021
Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties.
Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021:
· Increasing search traffic for Funko products
· Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability
· Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID
· People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out
· Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021
· Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity
· Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive
FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020
“Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019)
Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020
After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels
FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN
Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4
· B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year.
· Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020
· The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020
“We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti
Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes.
Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company
· Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020)
· Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018)
· As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well
Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales
· Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory.
· Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment.
Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each
· According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti.
· With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15
PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID
Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home.
· “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay
· “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD
Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending
· According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.”
Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays
· Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.”
Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong
· Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko
> Overall comparable sales were up 17.2%
> Comparable digital sales were up over 100%
> Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2%
> Store traffic was up 4.3%
> Average ticket size was up 12.3%
· GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales
> Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020
> Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020
· According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic
> A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019)
> The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years.
MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT
The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling
· “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020
· The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019
> The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel
> Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending
· Concert spending is down dramatically
> Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020
> About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3)
· Movie theater attendance is down substantially
> AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020
> Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue
> Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue
> Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy
· Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending
> Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy
> Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000
> CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy
> Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats
> Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel.
These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage
The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being
Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity
· The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion
· More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks
MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG
Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future
· The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019
· Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020
· The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year.
Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond
· Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc.
· Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom
· Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia
· Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious
· TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons
· Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE
· Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc.
COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY
· Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends.
· Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands.
· Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream.
ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK
Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12).
· Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries.
Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM)
· Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales)
· Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales)
· Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales)
Key Financial Trends For Funko
· Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31
> Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million
> Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94%
> Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID
> Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49%
> Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.)
· Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce
TL;DR
After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum.
Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock.
Positions: Long Shares & Calls
Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier.
Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates.
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Better Know the Ones Left Off the Ballot #18: Cody Ross

We're only a week-and-a-half from the revelation of who gets into the Hall! So I gotta speed this up! Which I've said every single time it hasn't been crunch time but it hasn't happened quite as much as I'd like! We'll see how I do this time! Done with the exclamation points now. If you don't know what this is, the Hall of Fame ballot has a lot of people who qualify for it (10 years of MLB experience), but aren't on it because they were deemed not noteworthy enough. We look at the guys that weren't up to the Selection Committee's standards. You can find the ones that make that number up there so big at the bottom. Now to this dude named Cody.

Cody Ross

Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor: 1
Career bWAR (12 years): 13.5
Stats: .262/.322/.445, 104 OPS+, 904 H, 132 HR,356 XBH, 508 RBI, 449 R
League Leading Stats: Double Plays as OF (4, 2007)
Awards: 2010 NLCS MVP, World Series Ring (2010)
Teams Played For: Tigers (2003), Dodgers (2005-06), Reds (2006), Marlins (2006-2010), Giants (2010-11), Red Sox (2012), Diamondbacks (2013-14), Athletics (2015)
Cody Ross could be one of the more irritating players to have on your team. One week he'd play like a superstar, the next week he wouldn't get a hit and drop a flyball. What he lacked in consistency, he made up for in longevity, managing to qualify for the Hall of Fame ballot. Didn't make it though, which is why he's here. How could someone who played so well (be it sparsely) and who took the nickname "Smiles" for his oh-so-charming grin get left off by the Selection Committee? Did they make a mistake?
What with being a high school All-American and pitching a five-inning perfect game one time, Cody Ross from Carlsbad wasn't a surprising pick for the Tigers in the 4th round of the 1999 draft. Even after going 31-for-142 in Rookie League for a .218 average, 15 of those 31 hits were for extra bases, so to the next level he went. Turns out he got better the higher level of competition he faced, going from a .706 OPS in Rookie ball in 1999 to a .753 OPS in single-A in 2000 to a .798 OPS in high-A in 2001 to a .859 OPS in double-A in 2002. No more perfect games thrown, though, because this was the early 2000s, and two-way players were the type of fantastical beast a grandparent might lull a child to sleep with stories about. After keeping the trend up in AAA in 2003, Ross got a call from the Detroit on July 4th. They wanted him to celebrate America's birthday with them in Kansas City. The Tigers had also won only 20 of the 84 games they'd played that season so things weren't going so great. Maybe Ross could help bring some much needed relief. Or he could ground out, reach on an error but not come around to score, then get hit by a pitch after which manager Alan Trammell subbed in a pinch-runner. And then he got to watch his team lose. Certainly a non-ideal way to start your career, but you just gotta keep at it and- oh you're back in the minors a week later. Hey, it's fine. Keep it up, and you'll get back in no time. That he did, coming up as soon as the rosters expanded, and once he was back, he proved he wanted to stay. In in his 20th ever plate appearance, in his 6th ever game, for his 4th ever hit, Cody Ross hit a grand slam off Cliff Lee. Sammy Sosa went almost 10 years before hitting his first slam, but it took Cody Ross just six games. Apparently the baseball gods didn't want him getting a big head after that, because just two plate appearances later in the same game, Ross tore his ACL trying to reach first on a sacrifice bunt turned E1. Bye bye majority of 2004. He still made it into 60 games with the AAA Las Vegas 51s, but was finished after that. "But wait a second," I hear you say, "surely you mean the Toledo Mud Hens, because they were Detroit's triple-A affiliate during that time, while the 51s were associated with the Dodgers." Remarkably observant, but that brings me to my next point. At the beginning of 2004, the Tigers decided that having bottom-5 pitching in the MLB was not how they wanted to continue (ignore the part where their offense was just as bad if not worse). As a result, Ross was shipped off to LA for relief arm Steve Colyer, and played for the 51s, hitting .273/.328/.538 with 14 homers. Not bad, not bad at all. Would it be enough to propel him into the majors next year?
After spending the first three months of the 2005 season in Nevada, Cody Ross got the call he'd been waiting for. Then, in 14 games between June 26th and July 10th, he... went 4-for-25 with one double and but a single RBI. Back to the minors it was. He'd finish his time in Vegas batting .267/.348/.509, but hadn't yet proved he wasn't like all the other AAAA hitters. He would get chance in spring training, and he took it, making the Opening Day roster, and even appeared in the first game of the season versus the Atlanta Braves, pinch-hitting for Derek Lowe. Flew out and stranded two but he was playing. His fifth game and second start of the season went a whole lot better. Facing the Pirates, in his 59th career plate appearance, Ross hit his second career grand slam. Barry Larkin needed 8991 plate appearances to get two grand slams, and Ross did it in less than 1/150th of the time. Seeing as how hitting home runs was fun, he decided to do it again the next inning, but fell a baserunner short of a slam this time. The Dodgers were so thankful for his contributions that they traded him just a week-and-a-half after that performance. Then again, their outfield already had Kenny Lofton, J.D. Drew, and these up-and-comers named Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, so that makes sense. And so Ross made his way across the country once again, this time to Cincinnati. The Reds watched him break his finger in his debut game, then assigned him to the AAA to rehab the injury. Called him back up once that was done, only to trade him to the Florida Marlins right after. Those Fish were in the middle of an... interesting season. Three days before they bought this guy with two grand slams in 30 career games, they had a record of 11-31. That was because owner Jeffrey Loria blasted all his best players off into oblivion for nickels and dimes on the dollar because he was mad at the city of Miami for not building him his own stadium, but that's another story. Ross would serve as their 4th outfield option for the rest of that season, making it into 91 games, more than quadrupling his career total up to that point. Sure, he'd bat .212/.284/.396 over that time, but don't ignore the 11 homers and 37 RBIs, including a 3-home-run, 7-RBI onslaught versus the 97-win Mets. Ignoring the part where he did that on 9/11 against a team from New York, it was the best offensive performance of the year. In case you misread that, a dude who didn't have a regular starting spot and was batting .228 at the time had the best offensive performance of the year in the MLB. That performance actually put the Marlins at a 73-71 record, only 2 games back of the NL Wild Card, and made them the first MLB team to claw back above .500 after being 20 games under in the same year. Even after they fell to 78-84 at the end of the season, the Marlins seemed like they were sticking with him. Mainly because he was cheap, but a performance like that didn't hurt. It seemed, after a long and winding road, that Cody Ross had finally found a team that wanted him.
The Marlins kept Cody Ross around for another three years, and unintentionally introduced the world to Dr. Cody and Mr. Ross. His 2006 season could be considered the genesis of the poorly-hitting and betrayal-minded Mr. Ross, but his 2007 season in Florida bore witness to the birth of his better half, Dr. Cody. Once his 12th game of the season was over, his average would never fall below .275 again, and at the year's conclusion, the Doctor would finish at a magnificent .335/.411/.653. The big dents in his MVP campaign were the fact he only played 66 games after missing just over 2 months of the season with a hamstring issue, and the fact the Marlins finished 71-91. The beginning of the next season saw another appearance from Mr. Ross, which resulted in a batting average of .209 in mid-June, despite the other side's best efforts including 10 home runs in May. Dr. Cody would overpower his nemesis for the next month, over which he batted .367 with 5 homers and 21 RBIs in 25 games. The two personalities would continue flip-flopping for a month each until the Toy Cannon (now that's a nickname) finished the year hitting .260/.316/.488 with 22 homers. Not bad for his first year as a regular member of the lineup. Man showed he deserved it too, putting up some real nice fielding numbers in the outfield, including a perfect fielding percentage in 101 games in center. The team was better this year too, going 84-77, though still not good enough for the playoffs. Over his next 271 games, Dr. Cody would bat .323/.375/.512 over 555 at-bats, and Mr. Ross would bat .201/.257/.352 over 458 at-bats. Add it all up, and during his time in a Marlins jersey, Dr. Cody and Mr. Ross combined to give Cody Ross a line of .265/.322/.465 with 80 home runs and a 104 OPS+. Thankfully for the team, the only half on-hand when it came to fielding was Dr. Cody, who contributed 2.4 dWAR with significant time spent in each outfield position. Never made the playoffs, unfortunately, since 87-75 didn't cut it in 2009. And yet, as with all good things, bad things, and in-between things, his time in Florida had to come to an end. Having been, for all intents and purposes, an above-average player for the past several years, Ross had been rewarded with several pay raises, from league minimum his first year all the way up to an expected salary of over $6 million at the end of 2010. The Marlins, who were rather stingy when it came to such extravagant contracts, put their 29-year-old outfielder, who already had 1.6 bWAR to his name that season, on waivers. It made more sense than that might imply, as Florida was out of contention by this point, and they had several younger outfielders to whom they wanted to give playing time. Names like Logan Morrison, Cameron Maybin, and Mike "I won't be Giancarlo for another couple years" Stanton were waiting in the wings, and while Cody Ross was good, he'd been more Mr. Ross than Dr. Cody as of late, and wasn't going to factor into the team's future plans. Thus, on August 22nd of 2010, The San Francisco Giants claimed a perfectly viable outfielder off waivers. Who would show up for them?
The San Francisco team that Ross joined was one that was on the fringes of playoff contention at 69-56, but had gone 9-11 over the past 20 games and were in desperate need of a spark. With an outfield core of Pat Burrell (eh), Aaron Rowand (could be better), Nate Schierholtz (uh oh), and Andres Torres (literally who?), someone like Cody Ross seemed like a premium pickup at a time like this. Particularly if, since he'd recently spent several weeks in a slump, Dr. Cody could show up for the end of the season. Unfortunately, the Giants got Mr. Ross, who went .195 over the next 20 he played. Even after the Doctor showed up to go 13-for-32 with 3 homers in the final 13 games of the season, that still only raised the team's average to .235 on the month, which was rather disappointing from a team that had maintained a monthly average above .260 four out of the five other times. Turns out, that was still good enough, because the Giants pitching went off in September. That month, the starting rotation allowed just a 2.36 ERA, spearheaded by Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, and Jonathan Sanchez, who went a combined 12-4 with ERAs of 1.94, 1.13, and 1.01, respectively. The bullpen, somehow, was even better, allowing a minuscule total of 9 runs, one of which was unearned, in 80 innings for a microscopic ERA of 0.90. Brian Wilson was a perfect 11-for-11 in save opportunities, and Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla combined for 12 holds across 24.1 innings, and together only allowed one run. Because of that unreal display, The Giants went 19-10 in September, just good enough to capture the NL West with a record of 92-70. They, and their new starting outfielder Cody Ross, were off to the NLDS.
SF would face the Atlanta Braves, who had ridden the bats of Chipper Jones, unlikely All-Star Omar Infante, and rookie Jason Heyward, and the arms of Tim Hudson, Jonny Venters, and Billy Wagner to a 91-71 record and the NL East crown. Chipper was out of commission for the Division Series, and they missed him dearly, especially in Game 1. Tim Lincecum pitched one of the best playoff games of the 21st century, going the full nine, only allowing 2 hits and 1 walk, and striking out fourteen. The final score was 1-0, with Dr. Cody's bat driving in Buster Posey for the only run. All four games of the series would be decided by one run, and the Toy Cannon fired off three RBIs, one in each game the Giants won. Talk about clutch hitting and surgical precision. On to the NLCS, where the Doctor would have to face another Doc, Roy Halladay. The only reason Lincecum's impeccable Game 1 wasn't the consensus best playoff pitching performance of this millennium is because it might not have been the best pitching performance of that week. The day before, Roy Halladay of the Philadelphia Phillies threw the second playoff no-hitter in history against the Cincinnati Reds, facing only one more than the minimum after a borderline full count call didn't go his way. It was his second no-hitter of the year, having pitched a perfect game in May against the Florida Marlins. Hey, wait, who was batting 6th in that game? Why it was none other than Mr. Ross, who kicked off a stint as his worse half with that loss. This time, however, Halladay would have to contend with Dr. Cody. And this was a Dr. Cody who was hot off an NLDS where he certainly would have won the MVP if they gave those out. In the first game of the NLCS, after Halladay had faced the minimum through seven batters, Cody Ross stepped up to the plate, and took him deep for a solo home run. Then, two innings later, he did it again, for another solo shot. Those two runs would be critical in a game that eventually ended 4-3 in favor of the Giants. They also set the tone for how Dr. Cody would be slice and dice his way through the Championship Series. He'd go 5-for-18 for the rest of it, hitting 3 doubles and another home run along the way. He drove in 5 (three of whom were himself) and scored another to be responsible for 6 of the 19 runs from San Francisco in a close series. For his contributions, Ross was awarded the 2010 NLCS MVP, because that's what you get after notching a slugging percentage of .950 in a 6-game series. He cooled a bit for the World Series, going 4-for-17 with a double and a home run in a 5-game dispatch of the Texas Rangers to win his very own World Series ring. The Giants, clearly thankful to him for the concoctions he'd prescribed his opponents, gifted Ross a $6.3 million contract for one year. He was yet again a member of an outfield platoon, playing the majority of his games in left, and remaining as inconsistent as ever. When he was on, he hit .311/.444/.600. When he wasn't, he hit .204/.344/.307. Unfortunately for the Giants, Dr. Cody yielded a lot of time to Mr. Ross in 2011, leading to a rather disappointing finish of .240/.325/.405, his lowest batting average and slugging percentage in five years. San Francisco likewise reverted, going only 86-76, which wasn't even good enough for a wild card spot. Mr. Ross even did the unthinkable and showed up in the field, putting up a rather dismal -1.4 dWAR en route to a trip to free agency. Having just had the worst season of the past several years at the age of 30, one might expect Ross to quietly ride off into the sunset with his World Series ring and call it an a-okay career. However, Dr. Cody and Mr. Ross still had business to attend to.
In January of 2012, the Red Sox signed Cody Ross to a one-year, $3.5 million contract. His role was clear: outfield depth. You don't get signed to a team with 2011-MVP-runner-up Jacoby Ellsbury and superstar Carl Crawford on it and expect to be starting the most games on the team in the outfield. Then Cody Ross started the most games in the outfield for the 2012 Boston Red Sox. Injuries galore gutted that team, with Crawford and Ellsbury combining for just 105 games. Ross played more than that by himself, even after he missed a month with a broken foot. What's more is it seemed like Dr. Cody stuck around for the majority of the season, bouncing back to .267/.326/.481 with 22 homers and 81 RBIs. Good enough for a 115 OPS+, Ross' best score over a full season in his career. Pity it didn't translate to the rest of the Red Sox. With key contributors missing so much time (Adrian Gonzalez and David Ortiz even got in on the action), a starting pitcher crop that treated a 4.50 ERA as the floor, and heavy inconsistency in the bullpen, Boston followed up their missed-it-by-that-much 2011 season with a 69-93 showing. Ross, who wasn't a part of the future, was let go, and after he was named the 22nd best free agent available by MLB Trade Rumors, expected a big payday. That he got, with a 3-year, $26 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He'd be the highest paid outfielder on a roster with youngsters AJ Pollock, Gerardo Parra, and Adam Eaton on it. He'd ultimately disappoint given the contract, playing all of 177 games across two seasons, and hitting .268/.322/.378. Perhaps most startling was the fact he hit only 10 home runs for the Dbacks, a number he had cleared in every single season prior where he'd played more than 20 games. After they didn't like what they saw, Arizona pushed the cancel button in April of 2015, buying out the rest of his contract to release him. A league minimum offer from the Oakland A's was accepted, but after 9 games of going 2-for-22, he wound up released less than a month later. That would be the last we heard from Cody Ross, after he didn't get offered another contract for a year, and retired via a Twitter announcement. Glad this story had a better ending than that other story with a split personality. Wish I could remember what it was called.
Cody Ross was certainly an interesting player. He had such stark streaks so succinct and startling (try saying that five times fast). I don't think I've ever seen another player with so very defined lines as to whether they were on or off. All the other stuff was pretty neat too, from hitting two grand slams within his first twenty hits, to getting perfected by Halladay only to hit two dingers off him in the playoffs, to the stuff I didn't even cover. Like how he's probably a top five all-time batter who hits right-handed and throws left-handed, or that one time he hit three grand slams in 2009, or how he first wanted to ride bulls in the rodeo. He's quite an interesting specimen to grace the history of the MLB. Not Hall-of-Fame ballot-worthy, though. Playoff heroics and interesting aspects set aside, 904 career hits and nothing that could even be classified as "All-Star" levels of quality mean no ballot for you. Even then, certainly not a bad player to write about.
Ross visits the Hall in a Florida Marlins cap for his 502 hits, 80 home runs, and 297 RBIs with the team. He passes by someone who looks suspiciously similar in an Arizona Diamondbacks hat with what appears to be a devilish grin on his face.
Geez Louise there are 17 of these
#1: Randy Choate
#2: Kevin Gregg
#3: Dan Uggla
#4: Josh Hamilton
#5: Delmon Young
#6: Willie Bloomquist
#7: Grady Sizemore
#8: Kevin Correia
#9: David DeJesus
#10: Rafael Betancourt
#11: Clint Barmes
#12: Adam LaRoche
#13: Grant Balfour
#14: Randy Wolf
#15: Rafael Soriano
#16: Chris Denorfia
#17: Bruce Chen
submitted by liljakeyplzandthnx to baseball [link] [comments]

Alabama Slammers Franchise Report - Special Edition: Twenty Year Review

Welcome to the special twenty-year review edition of the Alabama Slammers franchise report! We’ll highlight each MLB team in order of winning percentage, list the hall-of fame inductees, MVP winners, and Cy Young winners, then go over the top Slammers players. If there’s any player you’d like to know about that I don’t cover, just ask and I’ll let you know how they turned out.
Team Rankings by Winning Percentage
The method for choosing the best players from each team wasn’t scientific – I just tried to find the players that posted the highest WAR for each team during the past twenty-one years. So, anyone that played the majority of their career prior to 2020 is probably excluded, and longevity is valued over short periods of excellence. Also, I don’t have ratings screenshots for most of the players, but tried to include them where I could.
For the playoff appearances, keep in mind that we didn’t have a wildcard from 2021-2033.
1.) Alabama Slammers
20 Year Record – 2025-1215 (.625)
Playoff Appearances – 15
Division Championships – 15
World Series – 5
Best Pitcher – Gilles Palacios (2034 Ratings, Career Stats)
Best Batter – Edgar Sanchez (2035 Ratings, Career Stats)
This is one of the best twenty-year runs in the history of baseball – and we started as an expansion team. I expect us to be even better the next twenty years.
2.) Atlanta Braves
21 Year Record – 1888-1514 (.555)
Playoff Appearances – 5
Division Championships – 5
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Pat Leveille (2031 Ratings, Career Stats)
Best Batter – Ronald Acuna Jr. (2026 Ratings, Career Stats)
I really feel bad for the Braves getting stuck in a division with us. They were the second-best team in baseball for a long time and only have five playoff appearances to show for it.
3.) Los Angeles Dodgers
21 Year Record – 1837-1565 (.540)
Playoff Appearances – 7
Division Championships – 6
World Series – 1
Best Pitcher – Walker Buehler (Career Stats)
Best Batter – Cody Bellinger (Career Stats)
Despite having the third-best winning percentage the past twenty-one years, the Dodgers were a bit underwhelming. A team with their budget and talent level should’ve made the playoffs more than once every three seasons.
4.) Seattle Mariners
21 Year Record – 1813-1589 (.533)
Playoff Appearances – 8
Division Championships – 8
World Series – 1
Best Pitcher – Marco Gonzalez (Career Stats)
Best Batter – Cody Bellinger (Career Stats)
The Mariners signed Cody Bellinger to a 7/$196m deal prior to the 2025 season and it was the best move in their franchise’s history. He posted 47.8 WAR during his seven-year stay, won three MVPs, and brought them their first title in 2025.
5.) Toronto Blue Jays
21 Year Record – 1803-1509 (.530)
Playoff Appearances – 9
Division Championships – 7
World Series – 1
Best Pitcher – Jack Leiter (Career Stats)
Best Batter – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Career Stats)
The Blue Jays were pretty consistent, winning less than 70 games only one time and having just five losing seasons.
6.) Washington Nationals
21 Year Record – 1803-1509 (.530)
Playoff Appearances – 10
Division Championships – 9
World Series – 1
Best Pitcher – Fabricio Tertilio (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
Best Batter – Juan Soto (2024 Ratings, Career Stats)
The Nationals were one of the top franchises the past twenty-one years, and especially the last ten. They knocked a couple of our better teams out of the playoffs.
7.) Houston Astros
21 Year Record – 1797-1605 (.528)
Playoff Appearances – 8
Division Championships – 8
World Series – 1
Best Pitcher – Jose Corniell (2027 Ratings, Career Stats)
Best Batter – Garrett Mitchell (Career Stats)
Unfortunately, the trashcan beaters weren’t one of the worst teams in baseball. Hopefully, that changes the next twenty years.
8.) Los Angeles Angels
21 Year Record – 1795-1607 (.527)
Playoff Appearances – 11
Division Championships – 10
World Series – 1
Best Pitcher – Mike Butler (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
Best Batter – Mike Trout (Career Stats)
The Angels won a title two years after Trout retired – Sometimes life isn’t fair.
9.) Cleveland Indians
21 Year Record – 1787-1615 (.525)
Playoff Appearances – 9
Division Championships – 8
World Series – 2
Best Pitcher – Shane Bieber (Career Stats)
Best Batter – Francisco Lindor (Career Stats)
The Indians won two of the first three titles during the save but are still looking for their fifth overall championship.
10.) Boston Red Sox
21 Year Record – 1765-1637 (.519)
Playoff Appearances – 7
Division Championships – 6
World Series – 3
Best Pitcher – Rob McDowell (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
Best Batter – Rafael Devers (Career Stats)
The Red Sox are probably the closest thing I have to a rival. They’ve won three of the past five World Series, with two of those wins coming against us.
11.) Colorado Rockies
21 Year Record – 1756-1646 (.516)
Playoff Appearances – 8
Division Championships – 8
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Steve Delaney (2035 Ratings, Career Stats)
Best Batter – Eric Zuniga (2037 Ratings, Career Stats)
Steve Delaney might be the most talented fictional pitcher in the save, but he’s never won a Cy Young. He probably deserved one or two of the ones Gilles Palacios won.
12.) St. Louis Cardinals
21 Year Record – 1749-1653 (.514)
Playoff Appearances – 5
Division Championships – 1
World Series – 1
Best Pitcher – Jack Flaherty (2024 Ratings, Career Stats)
Best Batter – Ivan Manso (2034 Ratings, Career Stats)
The Braves had the misfortune of spending thirteen years in a division with us, but the Cardinals have had to suffer through twenty. They slipped in a title during one of our two losing seasons.
13.) San Diego Padres
21 Year Record – 1748-1654 (.514)
Playoff Appearances – 5
Division Championships – 4
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Jesus Pilar (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
Best Batter – Trent Grisham (Career Stats)
The Padres started off the 20’s hot but have turned into a middle of the road team since then. They haven’t made the playoffs in nine years.
14.) Detroit Tigers
21 Year Record – 1745-1657 (.513)
Playoff Appearances – 9
Division Championships – 9
World Series – 1
Best Pitcher – Matt Manning (2028 Ratings, Career Stats)
Best Batter – Adrian Cuevas (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
The Tigers have slipped a bit recently, but they had a great run from 2026-2036, winning the division nine times and taking one World Series.
15.) Minnesota Twins
21 Year Record – 1725-1677 (.507)
Playoff Appearances – 5
Division Championships – 3
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Peter Parrell (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
Best Batter – Joel Mogel (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
The Twins missed the playoffs for sixteen straight years, then made it five times in a row after losing Joel Mogel to free agency – go figure.
16.) New York Yankees
21 Year Record – 1723-1679 (.506)
Playoff Appearances – 4
Division Championships – 4
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Freddy Silguero (Career Stats)
Best Batter – Aaron Judge (Career Stats)
The Yankees are going to need to keep at this pace for about a hundred more years for me to catch them in total titles.
17.) Chicago Cubs
21 Year Record – 1702-1700 (.500)
Playoff Appearances – 4
Division Championships – 3
World Series – 1
Best Pitcher – Alex Velez (Career Stats)
Best Batter – Chris Mandell (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
The Cubs won the title in 2021 and have been about as average as possible since then.
18.) Mexico City Bandits
20 Year Record – 1607-1633 (.496)
Playoff Appearances – 1
Division Championships – 1
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Chad Perkins (Career Stats)
Best Batter – Alexis Perez (Career Stats)
The Bandits joined the league when we did and have had a tough time establishing themselves. Maybe they’ll fare better the next twenty years.
19.) Tampa Bay Rays
21 Year Record – 1684-1718 (.495)
Playoff Appearances – 8
Division Championships – 7
World Series – 1
Best Pitcher – Blake Snell (Career Stats)
Best Batter – Chris Peck (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
Starting in 2020, the Rays made the playoffs six of seven years, then only qualified two of the next fourteen years. They won the World Series in 2023.
20.) Philadelphia Phillies
21 Year Record – 1665-1737 (.489)
Playoff Appearances – 5
Division Championships – 4
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Alek Jacob (Career Stats)
Best Batter – Bryce Harper (Career Stats)
There’s not a lot to say about the Phillies. They’ve had some good years, some bad ones, and nothing too memorable to talk about.
21.) Arizona Diamondbacks
21 Year Record – 1662-1740 (.489)
Playoff Appearances – 3
Division Championships – 3
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Steve Madden (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
Best Batter – Daulton Varsho (Career Stats)
The Diamondbacks won their division from 2032-2034 but haven’t done much outside of that.
22.) Baltimore Orioles
21 Year Record – 1657-1745 (.487)
Playoff Appearances – 5
Division Championships – 5
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Joey Wentz (Career Stats)
Best Batter – Adley Rutschman (Career Stats)
The fact that Joey Wentz is the Orioles most accomplished pitcher says a lot about where they’re at as a franchise.
23.) Milwaukee Brewers
21 Year Record – 1656-1746 (.487)
Playoff Appearances – 5
Division Championships – 4
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Ze Carantonha (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
Best Batter – Christian Yelich (Career Stats)
Ze Carantonha was robbed of a Cy Young in 2038 and would be a lock for the hall of fame if he could stay healthy.
24.) New York Mets
21 Year Record – 1639-1763 (.482)
Playoff Appearances – 5
Division Championships – 5
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Kyle Brnovich (2035 Ratings, Career Stats)
Best Batter – Pete Alonso (2035 Ratings, Career Stats)
Interestingly, we faced off against both Brnovich and Alonso in the 2035 playoffs, but they were both playing for the Phillies.
25.) Kansas City Royals
21 Year Record – 1626-1776
Playoff Appearances – 1
Division Championships – 0
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Jeremy Hutchinson (Career Stats)
Best Batter – Alex Castro (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
Times have been tough for the Royals – their only playoff appearance was as a wildcard in 2037.
26.) Cincinnati Reds
21 Year Record – 1601-1801 (.471)
Playoff Appearances –
Division Championships –
World Series –
Best Pitcher – Bobby Dibble (Career Stats)
Best Batter – Ben Bovain (2033 Ratings, Career Stats)
Things would have been different for the Reds without Ben Bovain. He led them to three of their four playoff appearances and their only World Series title the past twenty-one years.
27.) Chicago White Sox
21 Year Record – 1598-1804 (.470)
Playoff Appearances – 1
Division Championships – 1
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Lucas Giolito (Career Stats)
Best Batter – Ken Thompson (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
The White Sox have been better recently, but they were dismal for most of the save.
28.) Oakland Athletics
21 Year Record – 1595-1807 (.469)
Playoff Appearances – 0
Division Championships – 0
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Chris West (2031 Ratings, Career Stats)
Best Batter – Kyle Hannah (Career Stats)
The Athletics are the only non-expansion team to fail to reach the playoffs – Ouch.
29.) Texas Rangers
21 Year Record – 1583-1819
Playoff Appearances – 1
Division Championships – 0
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Daniel Reyna (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
Best Batter – Angel Martinez (Career Stats)
The Rangers misery is only topped by the Athletics. They made the playoffs one time as a wildcard in 2034.
30.) San Francisco Giants
21 Year Record – 1561-1841 (.459)
Playoff Appearances – 3
Division Championships – 3
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Osiel Rodriguez (Career Stats)
Best Batter – Joey Bart (Career Stats)
The Giants have finished better than .500 one time in the past ten seasons, and that was last year with an 82-80 record.
31.) Miami Marlins
21 Year Record – 1555-1847 (.457)
Playoff Appearances – 1
Division Championships – 1
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Davis Sharpe (Career Stats)
Best Batter – JJ Bleday (Career Stats)
The Marlins made the playoffs in 2038, and it was their only appearance in franchise history that didn’t result in a championship.
32.) Hawaii Surf
7 Year Record – 500-634 (.441)
Playoff Appearances – 0
Division Championships – 0
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Jeff Janda (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
Best Batter – Ben Bovain (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
All four of the newest expansion teams have had a tough time, but that isn’t too surprising.
33.) Pittsburgh Pirates
21 Year Record – 1493-1909 (.439)
Playoff Appearances – 1
Division Championships – 1
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Dan Heimbach (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
Best Batter – Bill D’elia (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
The Pirates haven’t made the playoffs in nineteen years and have a worse winning percentage than three of the expansion teams – how embarrassing.
34.) New Orleans Jazz
7 Year Record – 494-640 (.436)
Playoff Appearances – 0
Division Championships – 0
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Tristan Dotson (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
Best Batter – Jose Sanchez (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
35.) Montreal Expos
7 Year Record – 459-675 (.405)
Playoff Appearances – 0
Division Championships – 0
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Damiano Ricciardi (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
Best Batter – Jim Philipps (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
36.) New Jersey Bats
7 Year Record – 451-683 (.398)
Playoff Appearances – 0
Division Championships – 0
World Series – 0
Best Pitcher – Branden Gray (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
Best Batter – Josh Keyes (Current Ratings, Career Stats)
Hall of Fame Inductees Since 2021
2021 – Roger Clemens (9th Ballot, 76.8%), Barry Bonds (9th Ballot, 76.2%)
2022 – Alex Rodriguez (1st Ballot, 97.8%), David Ortiz (1st Ballot, 89.2%), Curt Schilling (10th Ballot, 83.8%)
2025 – CC Sabathia (1st Ballot, 75.1%)
2026 – Albert Pujols (1st Ballot, 99.1%), Adrian Beltre (3rd Ballot, 83.5%)
2027 – Justin Verlander (1st Ballot, 96.9%), Miguel Cabrera (1st Ballot, 96.9%), Max Scherzer (1st Ballot, 82.9%)
2028 – Zach Greinke (1st Ballot, 78.3%), Carlos Beltran (6th Ballot, 75.3%)
2029 – Clayton Kershaw (1st Ballot, 99.4%)
2030 – Ichiro Suzuki (6th Ballot, 77.7%), Robinson Cano (4th Ballot, 75.3%)
2031 – Francisco Rodriguez (9th Ballot, 77.1%)
2032 – Craig Kimbrel (1st Ballot, 84.1%)
2033 – Giancarlo Stanton (1st Ballot, 79.4%)
2034 – Nolan Arenado (3rd Ballot, 87.4%), Jose Altuve (3rd Ballot, 83.9%)
2036 – Jose Ramirez (1st Ballot, 91.6%)
2037 – Mike Trout (1st Ballot, 99.0%), Christian Yelich (1st Ballot, 96.3%)
2038 – Rafael Devers (1st Ballot, 83.3%)
2039 – Cody Bellinger (1st Ballot, 99.7%), Bryce Harper (1st Ballot, 94.9%), Ozzie Albies (1st Ballot, 94.3%), Gavin Lux (1st Ballot, 81.0%)
AL MVPs Since 2020
Gleyber Torres (2020), Brandon Lowe (2021), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2022, 2023, 2024, 2026), Cody Bellinger(2025, 2028, 2029), Fernando Tatis Jr. (2027, 2034), Gavin Lux (2030), Joel Mogel (2031, 2035), Chris Peck(2032), Brad Hoxie (2033), Jose Uribe (2036), Andy Hudson (2037), Steve Duclos (2038, 2039), Josh Keyes(2040)
Notes:
Cody Bellinger dominated the league, winning seven MVPs over ten seasons.
Four players won MVPs in both leagues: Gleyber Torres, Cody Bellinger, Gavin Lux, and Joel Mogel.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. might be the first player to win four MVPs and not get inducted into the hall of fame.
The Twins had three different players win MVPs: Joel Mogel, Andy Hudson, Steve Duclos
Andy Hudson is probably the biggest flash in the pan in the past twenty-one years. He’s a free agent at 27 years old and only demanding $3.4m AAV.
NL MVPs Since 2020
Cody Bellinger (2020, 2021, 2022, 2024), Shohei Ohtani (2023, 2027), Gavin Lux (2025), Ronald Acuna Jr.(2026), Gleyber Torres (2028), Max Cotier (2029), Ben Bovain (2030, 2031, 2033, 2034), Doug Bridges (2032), Noe Renteria (2035, 2038), Joel Mogel (2036), Eric Zuniga (2037), Edwin de la Torre (2039), Mike Alacron(2040)
Notes:
Ben Bovain is probably the best fictional batter in the save. I’d be shocked if he’s not a first ballot hall of famer.
I’m not sure if anyone other than Ohtani has won the Cy Young while playing strictly as a pitcher, then won the MVP while playing strictly as a batter. He had one of the most interesting careers ever and it’s too bad he won’t make the hall of fame.
AL Cy Young Winners Since 2020
Shohei Ohtani (2020), Aaron Civale (2021), Marco Gonzalez (2022), Blake Snell (2023), Matt Manning (2024), Jose Corniell (2025, 2033), Sandy Alcantara (2026), Zac Gallen (2027), Shane Bieber (2028), Spencer Jones(2029), Javy Guzman (2030), Nate Pearson (2031), Freddy Silguero (2032, 2034), Joe Fryer (2035), Eddie Navarro (2036), Chris Keever (2037), Peter Parrell (2038, 2039), Jorge Morones (2040)
Notes:
Javy Guzman definitely had the worst career of any of the AL Cy Young winners.
NL Cy Young Winners Since 2020
Jack Flaherty (2020), Walker Buehler (2021, 2022, 2023, 2026), Cory Abbott (2024), Dinelson Limet (2025), Drew Butcher (2027), Pat Dibartolo (2028, 2030), Osiel Rodriguez (2029), Joe Starkey (2031), Gilles Palacios(2032, 2033, 2035, 2037), Bob Camargo (2034), Andy Schaffer (2036), Mike Bentley (2038, 2039), Jonathan Magee (2040)
Notes:
The Slammers have ten of the last thirteen NL Cy Young winners.
Pat Dibartolo had the worst second half career of anyone on the list. He signed with the Yankees before the 2034 season and posted -3 WAR over four seasons, earning $104m over that span.
Top 5 Slammers Position Players by Total WAR
\Primary screenshots are from most recent season with team.*
1.) Edgar Sanchez (9 Seasons, 47.3 WAR)
I wouldn’t be surprised if Sanchez is still number one twenty years from now. I think he’s got another 4-5 good seasons in him.
2.) Ernesto Bernal (12 Seasons, 40.7 WAR)
Bernal is the Slammers franchise leader in most offensive categories. Unfortunately, I had to let him walk as a free agent four years ago but he’s still going strong (current ratings, career stats). With a few more good seasons, he might actually make the hall of fame.
3.) Willie Vega (8 Seasons, 36.2 WAR)
4.) Marco Vazquez (6 Seasons, 32.3 WAR)
Vazquez looks to have the best shot of supplanting Sanchez by the next time I do this list.
5.) Shohei Ohtani (6 Seasons, 29.1 WAR)
Ohtani might not hold many Slammers franchise records, but he’s the most important player in team history. He put the offense on his back and carried us to our first World Series.
Top 5 Slammers Position Players by Single Season WAR
1.) 2030 Fernando Tatis Jr. (9 WAR)
2.) 2039 Edwin de la Torre (8.2 WAR)
3.) 2023 Shohei Ohtani (7.8 WAR)
4.) 2033 Ernesto Bernal (7.6 WAR)
5.) 2040 Edwin de la Torre (7.4 WAR)
Top 5 Slammers Starting Pitchers by Total WAR
\Screenshots are from most recent season with team.*
1.) Gilles Palacios (13 Seasons, 60.6 WAR)
Palacios is the Slammers all-time leader in almost every pitching category, and I don’t see anyone with a chance of catching him anytime soon.
2.) Corey MacDonald (11 Seasons, 44.8 WAR)
3.) Andy Schaffer (8 Seasons, 29 WAR)
4.) Pat Dibartolo (7 Seasons, 25.6 WAR)
5.) Mike Bentley (5 Seasons, 25 WAR)
Top 5 Slammers Starting Pitchers by Single Season WAR
1.) 2038 Mike Bentley (7.8 WAR)
2.) 2034 Gilles Palacios (6.7 WAR)
3.) 2037 Gilles Palacios (6.3 WAR)
4.) 2033 Gilles Palacios (6.1 WAR)
4.) 2038 Corey MacDonald (6.1 WAR)
Top 5 Slammers Relievers by Total WAR
\Screenshots are from most recent season with team.*
1.) Tommy Noonan (11 Seasons, 32.2 WAR)
Noonan is second all-time in reliever WAR, only behind his teammate Jose Aguilar. Mariano Rivera is in third place but has pitched more than twice as many innings as Noonan. Unless the hall of fame voters hold his lack of saves against him, he should make it on the first ballot.
\I didn’t count relievers that spent more than a season as a starter*
2.) Jose Aguilar (6 Seasons, 12.9 WAR)
3.) Hee-joon Bang (3 Seasons, 10.3 WAR)
4.) Blake Taylor (7 Seasons, 9.7 WAR)
5.) Joe McKinney (6 Seasons, 7.7 WAR)
Top 5 Slammers Relievers by Single Season WAR
1.) 2033 Tommy Noonan (4.9 WAR)
2.) 2035 Tommy Noonan (4.6 WAR)
3.) 2034 Tommy Noonan (4.1 WAR)
4.) 2028 Hee-joon Bang (3.9 WAR)
4.) 2029 Hee Joon Bang (3.9 WAR)
Best Draft Picks by Round
I really thought I was doing a better job drafting but there aren’t as many late round success stories as I believed we had. Most of my good picks were in the first or second round. Hopefully, we draft better in the future.
\Screenshots are from most recent season with team.*
1.) Tommy Noonan (11 Seasons, 32.2 Total WAR)
2.) Corey MacDonald (11 Seasons, 44.8 Total WAR)
3.) Chris Overcash (3 Seasons, 6.4 Total WAR)
4.) Bobby Butler (3 Seasons, 7.0 Total WAR)
5.) Steve Flores (4 Seasons, 9.5 Total WAR)
6.) Brad Cole (2 Seasons, 5.1 Total WAR)
7.) Joe McKinney (6 Seasons, 7.7 Total WAR)
8.) Phil Steele (1 Season, 2.8 Total WAR)
12.) Andy Schaffer (8 Seasons, 29.0 Total WAR)
17.) Steve Hixson (6 Seasons, 5.4 Total WAR)
21.) Bobby McCallum (3 Seasons, 8.1 Total WAR)
32.) Joe Cope (4 Seasons, 4.9 Total WAR)
Top Five Trade Departures
\Listed seasons and WAR are after player was traded away.* Screenshots are career stats.
1.) Pat Leveille (14 Seasons, 41.9 WAR)
Leveille was the Braves best pitcher in the past twenty-one years but I got Willie Vega in return, so I think everyone wins here.
2.) Robby Teeter (9 Seasons, 39.8 WAR)
It’s a shame Teeter couldn’t have played his whole career at Coors – He was built for that place. I got Luis Godoy in return, but I never would’ve guessed Teeter would be this good for so long.
3.) Chris West (9 Seasons, 35.2 WAR)
West has had a really good career, but not as good as the guy I got in return – Edgar Sanchez.
4.) Edwin Mireles (5 Seasons, 24.1 WAR)
I probably gave up on Mireles too soon, but through dumb luck I got a better player in return – Mike Bentley. He was a reliever when I acquired him, but he developed an 80-grade changeup and became a two-time Cy Young winner.
5.) Andrew McGee (9 Seasons, 21.9 WAR)
I thought McGee was going to struggle with injuries, so went ahead and cashed out on him, but I was dead wrong. He won six consecutive gold gloves with the Indians.
\I didn’t include Tatis on the list because he was a rental in the last year of his deal and I was going to lose him to free agency either way.*
That wraps up the first twenty years with the Slammers! Thanks to everyone that’s kept up so far! Hopefully, I can find a way to make the next twenty years even more interesting. And as always, let me know if you have any questions, comments, or concerns.
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[USA] [H] Tons of Xbox/Xbox 360/PS2 Games Plus Wii/Wii U/GC/GBA/DS/3DS/PS3/PS4 and More [W] PayPal, Sealed Pokemon TCG Products

Hey! All of the prices are OBO, so feel free to make an offer, especially if you're interested in multiple games! Shipping'll depend on the weight of everything you're interested in, but on average it'll be between $3 and $5. I’ll take photos for you upon interest of games.
I may have accidentally forgotten to denote some CIB games missing manuals, but if you express interest I’ll check and take pictures and let you know.
Xbox:
Xbox 360 Games/Items:
PS1:
PS2 Games (not loose) and Items:
PS2 - Disk Only:
PS3 Games:
PS4 Games:
GBA Games/Items:
Loose DS/3DS Games:
CIB 3DS/DS Games and Others (CIB unless stated otherwise):
Gamecube Games: (All CIB unless otherwise stated)
Wii Games and Items: (All Games CIB unless otherwise stated)
Wii U
PC:
VR:
Other Items:
Please note: PS2 games have not yet been tested but will be very soon (I was just able to get a PS2, just need to fix the laser so it reads discs properly). I no longer have a computer that can read discs so I cannot test the PC games, and I cannot test the VR game because I don't have a phone that works with it, but if you purchase an untested game and it doesn't work you'll receive a refund for the item.
As far as sealed Pokémon TCG product goes, I’m open to anything since my sealed collection’s pretty small rn, but mainly things 2016 or newer. Also potentially interested in Cosmic Eclipse Tag Team Promos (SM240 and SM241) and other modern promos with cool art!
submitted by shinybidoof11 to GameSale [link] [comments]

las vegas futures mlb video

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World Series bets still pouring in as MLB season wraps up ...

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